Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
843 am MDT sun Mar 26 2017
Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Tue...
Morning 9am update:
changes to the forecast were only to set hourly trends on track
for the next two to three hours. Some high clouds from Pacific
moisture are currently exiting the Front Range and making their
way into northeast Montana for the afternoon with no rain showers
Previous short term discussion:
upper trof swinging through Montana today, pushing a weak front
into North Dakota this morning. Stacked westerly winds, a little
cold air advection and gradient due to surface low moving into
southern Saskatchewan, could result in gusty winds across the
hiline today. Otherwise sunny and mild weather expected today.
Slight ridge builds over the state tonight with another upper trof
moving onshore from the Pacific Ocean. As southwest flow
increases, moisture will begin streaming out of the Great Basin.
Although most of the energy with the Pacific trof will be focused
across the central and southern rockies, could see some showers
into central Montana by Monday night, spreading into eastern
Montana on Tuesday. Ebert
Long term...Tue night through sun...
the long term begins with a departing trough Tuesday night and
Wednesday into the upper Midwest while a shortwave ridge builds
across Montana. As a result, rain showers will exit and warmer and
drier weather conditions will prevail for the midweek.
A more amplified trough will develop into the western Continental U.S. For
Thursday with a closed low splitting off on the southern extent
across the Great Basin. Do expect broad dynamic forcing for ascent
and ample moisture to lead to increasing rain showers with this
system as it impacts the County Warning Area. As the effects would not reach the
region until day 5 or 6, there is still plenty of uncertainty as
to where the steadiest rain showers may occur. Nevertheless, this
will be a period of interest in the coming days.
Given the increasing spread in ensemble 500mb heights beyond
Thursday, the forecast was largely trended toward latest 12z
consensus model blends. Maliawco
flight cat: VFR
Synopsis: weak ridge will build into the area with some mid level
Chinook Arch clouds by Monday morning.
Winds: west at 5 to 15 kts through today... light and variable
overnight... becoming southeast at 5 to 15 kts Monday.