Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
935 am MDT Thu Jun 29 2017
Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...
Sent an update this morning to set up the hourly near-short term
grids today with the latest and best model consensus I could find,
correlated with the current observational data. The Canadian
prairie upper-level low pressure system will push a subtle short-
wave impulse through NE Montana later today through this evening.
Current thinking is that this will bring another round of
scattered rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms to our
area - probably more so for our eastern zones as depicted in the
Storm Prediction Center sseo guidance. Will update again as needed with convective
initiation and progress today.
Previous short term discussion: gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop today in response to an upper level shortwave
and surface cold front pushing through the area. As a result, the
lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake remains largely on track.
Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms at
times for portions of northeast Montana as well, though do not
expect widespread significant rainfall.
Latest 00z models have an upper ridge sliding across the
northwestern U.S. On Friday with rising heights advancing on
eastern Montana. This will result in drier weather conditions and
Long term...Sat night through Thu...
Shortwave ridge Friday night and Saturday will bring dry weather
with warmer temperatures that will be near normal or slightly
above for early July.
A shortwave trough moves through eastern Montana Sunday afternoon
and evening which could bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to
parts of the region.
Models differ on whether or not an upper trough moving across the
Canadian prairies on Monday and Monday night will push a cold
front through northeast Montana. Will maintain a dry forecast for
Upper ridge builds into Montana for the middle of the week with
warm and dry weather.
Synopsis: the Canadian prairie low pressure system continues to
control the weather pattern over our area. This will bring another
round of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to NE
Montana later today through this evening. All taf sites could be
Flight conditions: mainly VFR, with brief MVFR conditions if a
storm happens to pass directly over a taf site.
Winds: generally from the northwest around 15 knots with some higher
gusts, turning more from the north this afternoon and evening,
then becoming light and variable tonight. Exception: with any
passing rain shower or thunderstorm, winds could easily become
erratic and gusty up to 40 mph.
lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Fort Peck
Lake for central and southeast Phillips...central and southern