Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
359 am CDT Sat Apr 20 2019
/today and tonight/
An upper level ridge will build into the region today while
southerly surface winds return in response to a developing surface
trough across the Central High plains. As a result, temperatures
will be considerably warmer today than Friday with highs ranging
from the middle 70s in the northeast to the middle 80s in the
west. Wind speeds will be light this morning but steadily
increase through the afternoon.
Increasing low level warm/moist advection tonight will result in
a fairly mild night with lows ranging from the mid 50s to the
/Sunday through Friday/
Another widespread - and in some spots, generous - rainfall event
still appears in the offing for north and central Texas next
Tuesday through Thursday. The threat for widespread severe
thunderstorms still appears relatively low, but not out of the
question for our area. At the same time, localized heavy rainfall
may occur, particulary on Wednesday.
Sunday through Monday...
Easter Sunday will be gorgeous, with sunny skies and afternoon
temperatures climbing into the 80s at most locations. The only
rub will be the strong southerly winds, which will be topping out
in the 15-25 mph range - especially along and west of I-35. We
may need to consider a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon, if the
gusty guidance trends intensify. A broad southwesterly upper
level flow regime will steadily evolve from Sunday into Monday,
ahead of the deepening trough over UT/AZ. High level cloudiness
will begin overspreading the region on Monday, producing filtered
sunshine by afternoon.
Tuesday through Wednesday night...
The Euro, GFS and Canadian are in good agreement in the evolution
of the southwest upper low, which exits The Rockies and reaches
a MO/OK/TX axis by 06z Thursday. A corresponding frontal boundary
will gradually work into North Texas by Wednesday, eventually
clearing the entire forecast area by sunset Wednesday. Synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent will steadily increase Tuesday, and
become abundant Wednesday. The same can be said for low-level
moisture, which will be transported northward in ample quantities
toward the evolving baroclinic zone setting up over North Texas.
The upshot will be another healthy round of shower activity,
beginning in the western and northern counties Tuesday afternoon,
and overspreading the entire area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
More than enough cape will be available for scattered thunderstorms
areawide Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and the expected
convective Mode will likely be multi-cellular clusters. Not
overly crazy about the severe weather threat just yet, though ml
cape and shear values in some areas hint at some marginal severe
potential - especially Wednesday. Of slightly greater concern
will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall, given
forecast precipitable water values that climb to near 150-175% of normal in some
areas by Wednesday. At this point, believe just about everyone
will see at least another inch of rainfall with this system, some
areas picking up 2-3" totals by early Thursday. Given that all
sections of north and central Texas are running at or above normal
for April rainfall, soils are a tad moist now. Despite the
burgeoning vegetative growth, this additional rainfall may result
in some minor flooding concerns next week.
Thursday and Friday...
Compared with yesterday's runs, the current model solutions now
offer a more progressive picture with the aformentioned upper
trough, pushing it east of our area Thursday and replacing it with
a flat shortwave ridge on Friday. Accordingingly, precipitation
should end from west to east across North Texas Thursday, with
clearing conditions occurring through the daylight hours. Friday
(and for that matter, the weekend) looks great, with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures primarily in the lower 80s.
Aviation... /issued 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light westerly
winds overnight becoming southerly between 10-15 kt midday
Saturday. Some high clouds may spread into the region by the end
of the period, but no significant aviation concerns are expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 79 59 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 58 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 73 53 78 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 58 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 76 57 80 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 79 60 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 57 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 56 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 57 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 82 57 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0