Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 222016 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
316 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

an upper ridge currently parked over the Southern Plains will
shift east tonight through Friday as a West Coast upper trough
heads east. Return flow will be on the increase tonight and
tomorrow as Lee-side troughing intensifies and the pressure
gradient Narrows. A 40 knots low level jet will develop in advance of
the system this evening after winds decouple. These strong 925 mb
winds will mix to the surface mid to late morning Thursday,
creating warm and breezy conditions. At this time, it appears that
relative humidity values will remain too high to create
significant wildfire concerns.

Thursday night: forcing for ascent should become strong enough to
generate scattered showers and storms over West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Convection will likely initiate along a dry line, which
will be followed closely by a Pacific front. Storms will spread
east into western counties of North Texas as the Pacific front
overtakes the dry line overnight, likely developing into a qlcs as
the system moves into the I-35 corridor Friday morning. Early on,
there could be a few strong to possibly severe storms with a low-
end damaging wind threat. A better chance for severe storms (with
both a damaging wind and large hail threat) will occur east of
I-35 where the atmosphere will have time to destabilize late
Friday morning and Friday afternoon. Rain chances will end from
west to east Friday afternoon, with just about all precipitation
exiting the easternmost locales by sunset.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected Saturday following the
passage of the cold front. This will be short-lived, however, as
a second upper trough will quickly induce return flow late
Saturday into Sunday. There is quite a bit of energy with this
system, but the lack of appreciable moisture may limit convective
development for much of the area. The most likely scenario is that
there will be scattered storms Sunday afternoon and evening
initially developing near the Red River where the coldest air
aloft and steepest lapse rates will be. This activity would
develop farther south with time while spreading east, so the
highest pops will be across the northeastern counties, with
generally lower pops the farther south you go. Shear and
instability will be sufficient for a few strong to possibly
severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds equal threats.

The upper level pattern looks to remain active and fairly
progressive as we move through next week. All models are
advertising a deep upper low right over the middle of the
country a week from now, with subtle differences in timing and
intensity. The time of year alone is enough justification to keep
in mind that there will at least be some possibility of severe
weather, with better details becoming realized with time.



/issued 1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/
lingering MVFR ceilings will scatter out at all taf sites between
18z and 20z as drier air mixes through the boundary layer. VFR
will prevail this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds will once
again develop over The Hill Country late this evening as a 35 knot
low level jet sets up. Ceilings should remain above 1000 ft but
could briefly fall just below 1000 ft around sunrise. All low
ceilings should quickly lift and scatter out Thursday morning
with vigorous daytime mixing.

We do not expect any showers or storms at the terminals through
this forecast cycle due to a Stout cap of warm air in place
between 800mb and 700mb. A few elevated showers or storms could
develop closer to the Red River due to decent mid level

Southerly flow will prevail through the taf cycle. Wind speeds
today and tonight will range between 10 and 14 knots along with
some higher gusts. Wind speeds will increase between 15 and 20
knots by mid morning Thursday due to mixing down of higher
momentum air and a tightening pressure gradient.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 64 85 65 82 57 / 0 5 40 70 5
Waco 65 83 65 81 55 / 0 5 30 70 5
Paris 58 82 60 72 55 / 5 10 10 70 20
Denton 63 84 63 81 54 / 0 5 40 60 5
McKinney 62 83 62 75 55 / 0 5 30 70 5
Dallas 64 85 65 79 57 / 0 5 40 70 5
Terrell 62 84 63 74 57 / 5 10 20 70 10
Corsicana 63 85 63 75 58 / 5 5 20 70 20
Temple 64 84 63 81 56 / 5 5 30 70 5
Mineral Wells 62 85 60 83 53 / 0 5 50 40 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations