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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
707 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016

Aviation...
activity today has struggled mightily within a more subsident
airmass, and coverage likewise has been quite spotty. Anticipate
lingering activity to continue to gradually diminish as surface
heating abates. Farther upstream, a more concentrated mass of
storms is ongoing across Oklahoma. An associated outflow
boundary, which stretches from near kadm to kcwc, is making
southeastward progress and should continue moving into our
region this evening. Given the nocturnally stabilizing airmass and
a lack of low-level flow, convective maintenance appears unlikely
into the metroplex, but we will monitor this outflow's progress
this evening.

A more active scene looks to unfold on Thursday as a frontal
boundary impinges upon the region--especially at the metroplex
sites. Given plentiful low-level moisture, scattered
thunderstorms look to increase in coverage from the mid-morning
hours and Onward. Given the fairly widespread nature of
convection, we've indicated a rather long period of thunderstorms in the vicinity at the
metroplex sites as it is not possible to convey with certainty the
most likely periods of shower versus thunder activity. The most
likely time frame for thunder impacts should be during the 19-23z
period on Thursday, and something we may need a tempo group for as
confidence in timing increases.

At Waco, convective coverage should be less given the better
forcing displaced farther to the north. Still, there will be
enough moisture to initiate thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Have pared back the mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity to after 18z, and we may be
able to refine this further in subsequent taf issuances.

Outside of precipitation, expect VFR conditions and north to
northeast winds in the 5 to 10 kt range.

Carlaw

&&

Synopsis...
warm and humid conditions persist across North Texas today...as
we remain on southern side of a weak front. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible this evening however the best chance for rainfall
should remain along the Red River. As the front drops southward on
Thursday cloud cover is expected to increase keeping temperatures
in the upper 80/lower 90s with rain/thunderstorm chances
increasing through the afternoon.

Once the front moves through the dfw area rain chances decrease
toward the weekend as drier air mixes into the region from the
northeast.

&&



Long term...
dry air moving into the region from the northeast
will keep most locations dry and mild through the weekend. Best
chances for rain/thunderstorms remains along the south and
southwest counties. Model data suggests that dewpoint
temperatures will not respond to the modest drying from the
northeast so any relief from the humidity looks to be limited and
temporary. There are very few changes in the day to day
forecast...with only slight variations in Max/min temperatures and
rain chances.

Van speybroeck/stalley

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 92 73 89 72 / 10 50 30 10 5
Waco 75 93 73 90 72 / 5 30 20 20 10
Paris 73 88 69 87 65 / 20 40 20 10 5
Denton 72 89 71 88 69 / 20 50 30 10 5
McKinney 74 89 71 88 69 / 10 50 20 10 5
Dallas 78 92 73 90 73 / 10 50 20 10 5
Terrell 74 90 72 90 69 / 10 40 20 10 5
Corsicana 76 92 73 90 71 / 5 30 20 20 5
Temple 73 93 73 91 72 / 5 20 20 30 10
Mineral Wells 72 89 70 87 70 / 20 40 30 20 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

90/79

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