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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
319 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Discussion...
a pleasant, tranquil day is in progress with clear skies and
temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. Light southerly
surface winds have resumed with a surface ridge axis positioned
right along the I-35 corridor. Lee cyclogenesis is occurring
across eastern Colorado as broad upper troughing overspreads the
western US. This deepening surface low will result in strengthened
southerly flow tonight into Tuesday. This will pull low level
moisture northward from the Gulf beginning Tuesday morning. This
moisture will not be sufficient for fog or low cloud development
even across our southeastern counties where it will be most
plentiful.

Moisture will continue increasing across the eastern half of the
forecast area tomorrow while a dryline takes shape to the west.
Areas west of the dryline during the afternoon hours will
experience elevated fire weather danger due to low humidity and
breezy winds. Dewpoints will remain in the 30s and low 40s across
our northwestern counties, and with temperatures expected to climb
into to 70s to near 80 degrees, relative humidity values will fall to near 20%.
West winds will also be around 15-25 mph in response to a
tightening pressure gradient associated with the deepening surface
low to the north. The limiting factor for fire weather concerns
will be fuel conditions which will keep the threat marginal enough
so that a Fire Weather Watch will not be issued at this time.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a trailing cold front
will slide through the forecast area bringing a noteworthy drop
in temperatures for the last half of the week. With meager
moisture in place, the frontal passage is expected to be dry and
have not mentioned any rain chances in the forecast. By the time
the front moves out of the forecast area to the southeast, it will
finally encounter moisture sufficient for a thin line of showers
immediately along the front, but expect that this will develop
southeast of the forecast area. Continued cold advection during
the day Wednesday will act to keep high temperatures in the 50s
and low 60s, 10-20 degrees cooler than Tuesday.

Some subfreezing temperatures are likely on Thursday morning
especially along and north of I-20. A broad positively-tilted
trough will remain in place across much of the country into the
end of the week and next weekend. Without any feature to bring
moisture back to the area, a fairly stagnant and dry forecast
will remain in place with near-normal temperatures (including some
near or slightly below freezing lows). Another weak front may
slide through the area late Friday, but this wouldn't have much of
an effect on our sensible weather. Overall, there is very little
indication of any noteworthy rainfall in north and central Texas
in the next 7-10 days.

-Stalley

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1142 am CST Mon Jan 23 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through 00z
Wednesday. Light and variable winds are coming around to the south
as a surface ridge that is currently along the I-35 corridor
moves east and low pressure deepens over Colorado. Winds will
veer around to the southwest Tuesday and increase to around 15
knots by late morning. There will be an increase in high clouds
during the day Tuesday.

58



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 49 78 43 58 34 / 0 5 5 5 5
Waco 48 78 42 61 33 / 0 5 5 5 5
Paris 44 71 41 54 30 / 0 5 5 5 5
Denton 46 75 38 54 29 / 0 5 5 5 5
McKinney 46 74 41 55 30 / 0 5 5 5 5
Dallas 49 78 44 58 35 / 0 5 5 5 5
Terrell 47 74 43 58 33 / 0 5 5 5 5
Corsicana 49 77 45 60 36 / 0 5 5 5 5
Temple 49 77 44 62 33 / 0 5 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 48 75 38 56 28 / 0 5 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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