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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1134 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

/18z tafs/

Only minor challenges are expected with wind speeds/gusts, as we
move into Thursday with VFR conditions prevailing throughout the

A weak surface trough was located west of I-35. South-southeast-south-southwest winds less
than 10 knots will prevail through mid morning Thursday. Lee
cyclogenesis will increase well to the northwest on Thursday, as a
strong shortwave disturbance lifts east across the central
rockies and plains. This process combined with strong thermal
mixing by midday Thursday will result in gusty S winds 15-25

A cold front will shift winds northwest by early Friday, but that is well
beyond the 24-30 hours and will be addressed in later forecasts.



Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017/
as shortwave ridging aloft moves across the region today, quiet
and warm weather will occur with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. South to west winds in the lower to mid levels of the
atmosphere will reestablish today and tonight in response to
another upper level trough that will quickly move into the western
Continental U.S.. tonight will be a warmer night with lows mostly in the
50s, but a few rural locations may dip into the upper 40s.

As the upper level trough moves into the intermountain west, a Lee-
side low will develop and strengthen, moving east into Kansas
tomorrow. Our surface winds will respond on Thursday increasing to
15-20 mph with higher gusts. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be in
the mid to upper 80s with some locations west of Interstate 35
reaching 90-92 degrees. The current forecast of 87 degrees at dfw
would be a new record high for the day, breaking the current
record of 86 degrees set in 1933. Waco's record high for Thursday
is 89 degrees set in 1996, and the current forecast is for a high
temperature below that record.

In addition to record or near-record temperatures on Thursday,
fire concerns increase west of Interstate 35/35w due to the warm
temperatures, breezy winds and humidity values in the teens and
lower 20s. Recent rainfall in part of that area will likely temper
some of the fire weather concerns, but there are still some areas
that did not receive quite as much rainfall where any fires that
start may be able to quickly spread.

As the upper level trough crosses the plains on Friday, it will
send a cold front into north and central Texas. A dryline/front
will cross the region on Friday with a reinforcing shot of cooler
air Friday night. We are still expecting dry weather with this
front, and some fire weather concerns may exist on Friday. Breezy
northwest winds near 15 mph will be behind the initial
dryline/front but there will be some cooler air starting to filter
in with this initial push. However, humidity values will be below
30 percent and this raises some fire weather concerns.

Cooler temperatures are expected Friday night and Saturday, and
some locations in our northwest may approach the freezing mark
early Saturday morning. If freezing temperatures do occur, they
should exist only for a short window near sunrise. South winds
return on Sunday in advance of the next upper level system and a
warming trend quickly returns heading into next week.

Next week's system will be one to watch as the set-up may favor a
chance for severe weather across part of the region. Currently the
latest model guidance does not indicate much of a severe weather
threat, and there are enough differences between the models to
keep the rain chances and severe weather threat low at this time,
but the pattern bears watching. Moisture will quickly return
across the region starting Sunday with dewpoints in the 50s and
60s surging north. This will set up a dryline to our west that
will mostly remain to our west for the next few days. However,
each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, it will have the potential to
wander close to our western counties. The lift with the upper
level system won't reach the region until Tuesday, and then the
upper level system is expected to drive the dryline and a front
through our region Tuesday night. With this system being nearly a
week out, the timing and chances for rain and/or severe weather
could change, and for now will maintain low pops on Monday across
the eastern half of the region, and then spread pops across the
region Monday night through Tuesday night.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 82 54 87 54 67 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco 82 51 84 53 73 / 0 0 0 5 5
Paris 78 53 84 52 69 / 0 0 0 5 5
Denton 81 50 87 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney 80 52 86 52 67 / 0 0 0 5 5
Dallas 82 56 87 56 68 / 0 0 0 5 5
Terrell 80 54 84 55 69 / 0 0 0 5 5
Corsicana 80 55 85 56 72 / 0 0 0 5 10
Temple 83 51 85 54 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
Mineral Wells 84 50 89 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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