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000 
FXUS64 KFWD 160947
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
347 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain and thunderstorms continue to push to the east early this 
morning as the upper low responsible for last night's round of 
severe storms and flooding ejects northeastward into the Central 
Plains. Where skies cleared out behind the line of storms, patchy 
fog (some dense) has formed mostly along/west of I-35. Expect 
visibilities to remain less than a mile and occasionally less than
1/4 mile in this area, and have gone with a Dense Fog Advisory 
through 9am. The advisory may need to be expanded farther east if 
conditions begin to deteriorate.

Showers and storms will linger across our southeastern counties
today where a moisture gradient and weak surface convergence will
remain. Additional showers and storms may develop in this area 
later this afternoon, but a lack of strong large-scale ascent as
well as limited instability should limit any storm's intensity. 
In the meantime, drier air will be slowly filtering in from the 
west across the rest of North and Central TX with light westerly 
surface winds. Later today and tonight, a cold front (currently 
positioned roughly from OKC southwestward through the TX 
Panhandle) will move through the area. Winds will become 
northwesterly which will advect in cooler air overnight dropping 
temperatures 5-15 degrees for Tuesday.

The aforementioned cold front will stall across south TX on 
Tuesday with a deepening upper low taking shape to our west. As 
this low intensifies and moves toward the region Tuesday night, 
isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will result in showers and
isolated storms developing across much of Central TX. Have 
continued an upward trend in PoPs during the middle of the week 
as guidance continues to advertise a higher potential for rain and
a few thunderstorms. With this activity being elevated above a 
cooler surface layer well north of the stalled front, severe 
storms are not expected. In fact, due to very limited instability,
activity may consist more of widespread showers without much 
thunder. The highest rain chances will be on Wednesday with the 
highest PoPs confined to Central TX through the middle of the 
week.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin tapering off from west to
east on Thursday as the upper low begins shifting northward, 
pulling the stationary front back north as a warm front. 
Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer as south 
flow resumes and some clearing skies allow for increased heating. 
It appears our forecast area will be situated on the subsident 
side of the departing shortwave during this time which implies 
most of the thunderstorm potential will be shifting east of the 
area for the rest of Thursday. 

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the weekend, although 
it does appear an active pattern will still send numerous 
disturbances through the area into early next week. We should be 
between systems on Friday with above normal temperatures 
continuing. Guidance is suggesting another shortwave will be 
digging southward through the Central Plains during this time
which would affect our weather for the upcoming weekend. This
shortwave would be capable of generating a deep surface low to 
our north on Saturday/Sunday leading to additional chances for 
thunderstorms across parts of East TX. 

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/
/06Z TAFs/

Metroplex airports--The rain is ending from west to east across
the Metroplex, and should be east of KDAL by 07-08Z. Light and
variable winds will become more westerly overnight. VFR cigs will
become clear in a few hours and there's a decent potential light
fog will develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will be keeping a close eye on this potential and for
now will indicate a 2SM from 09-16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected but there may be a few low clouds as a front moves
through the region later today. The winds will shift to the
northwest late this afternoon with this front.

Waco airport--Showers and thunderstorms will continue near the
airport through 08-09Z. As the ceilings clear in a few hours,
light fog may develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will carry a 2SM from 10-16Z but keep a close eye on
this development during the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. The winds will become westerly overnight
and then become northwesterly late Monday afternoon as a front
moves through the region. There may be a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorm near the front in the afternoon hours but at
this time the best rain potential is southeast of the airport.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  43  56  45  58 /  10   0  10  40  30 
Waco                69  47  55  44  59 /  10  10  40  60  40 
Paris               64  43  56  44  57 /  50  10   5  40  30 
Denton              62  40  55  39  57 /  10   0  10  40  30 
McKinney            63  42  56  42  58 /  20   0  10  40  30 
Dallas              66  44  56  47  59 /  10   0  10  40  30 
Terrell             67  45  57  44  59 /  30  10  20  50  30 
Corsicana           67  48  57  47  59 /  40  10  40  60  40 
Temple              68  48  55  45  59 /  20  10  60  60  50 
Mineral Wells       62  39  55  40  58 /   5   0  10  40  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ091-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.

&&

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