Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 240848 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
348 am CDT Wed may 24 2017

a very cool morning for late may was underway due to a clear sky,
dry air and light winds. Temperatures at 3 am were mainly in the
50s which will end up being record lows for this date in many
locations. A steady warmup is expected today with abundant sun
and adiabatic warming from a west to northwest wind. Afternoon
highs will warm into the 70s and lower 80s. However, it will feel
a bit cooler since wind speeds will increase once vigorous
boundary layer mixing commences.

A warming trend will begin tonight and increase on Thursday as
upper level high pressure builds over the state and low level warm
air advection becomes established. Afternoon highs on Thursday
will be considerably warmer than today and much more typical of
late may with mainly upper 80s and lower 90s. The western zones
will even reach the mid 90s as the dryline mixes in during the
late afternoon.

The warmup will continue into Friday even though the upper ridge
axis will shift to the lower Mississippi Valley. The primary
root of the overall warmup will be increasing Gulf moisture ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. However, the return of the
dryline to the western zones will increase adiabatic warming in
the afternoon which should push some temperatures to the mystical
triple digits.

Even through large scale lift and mid level instability will be on
the increase Friday, mid level southwesterly flow (warm air) will
keep the a tight lid on any convection.

The low pressure system will translate east across The Rockies on
Saturday with the upper trough axis reaching West Texas by
afternoon. The atmosphere should remain largely capped across
north and central Texas Saturday. However, the dryline will make
another run to the east in the afternoon and may be able to muster
up a few storms across the western zones before sunset.

The upper trough will move east across the state Saturday night
through Sunday and allow a cold front to move south across the
region. The front will become a focus for showers and storms with
the best chances on Sunday. Models have been fairly consistent
with moving the front south of the forecast area Sunday night and
stalling it out over south Texas on Memorial Day. Therefore, some
elevated showers and storms will be possible across mainly the
southern zones Monday and Monday night.

Storm chances should return to the entire region on Tuesday as the
front lifts back to the north in response to another developing
low pressure system in the west. This low pressure system should
keep the weather unsettled as we move into early June.



/issued 1131 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017/
northwest winds behind today's cold front have backed to the west
and fallen below 10 kts this evening, and will remain light the
rest of the night. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase
to around 15 kt late Wednesday morning. Winds will become light
again Wednesday evening as a surface ridge passes overhead, then
shift around to the southeast by midnight Wednesday night as the
surface ridge moves east into Louisiana. Otherwise, VFR
conditions can be expected as dry air and subsidence dominate in
the wake of a passing upper level trough.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 79 60 91 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 81 59 90 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 54 85 70 89 / 0 0 0 5 10
Denton 78 56 90 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 76 55 87 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 62 91 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 57 87 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 79 59 89 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple 82 60 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 80 56 94 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations