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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1128 am CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some passing
high clouds. North winds of 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts
will prevail through this afternoon, and then decrease to less
than 10 kts this evening. The winds will shift to the east
Thursday morning.

Jldunn

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

Early morning radar imagery and surface observations reveal a
pre-frontal trough moving through North Texas evidenced by a
lowering in surface pressures, a wind shift to the southwest, and
a fine line of enhanced low level convergence on radar. Just to
the west of that, a dryline is also surging eastward with a drop
in dewpoints from the low/mid 60s in the metroplex to lower 30s in
Mineral Wells. And finally, the actual cold front is just now
making it into our far northwest counties where winds abruptly
shift to the north and gust to near 30 kt. The cold front is
rapidly heading south and will overtake the dryline over the next
few hours. The window for any convection in our area is quickly
closing and will likely be confined to the pre-frontal trough that
is over the eastern counties through sunrise. We've seen a couple
of attempts at convective development over the last hour in the
southeast and this will be the favored area through 6 am.

Otherwise, the front will clear the entire area by mid morning
with temperatures generally in the 60s today with gusty north
winds. The combination of gusty winds and much drier air in the
region will lead to an elevated grass fire threat. This should
diminish later this evening when winds decrease. Tonight will be
rather chilly with temperatures falling to near freezing in many
of our outlying areas to the northwest.

Thursday should be a nice day with weak upper ridging building
into the Southern Plains and generally light winds. Highs will
climb into the mid 60s. By Friday, we will begin to see an
increase in high cloud cover as a shortwave trough digs southwest
of Baja California. It should still be a nice day with
temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and increased southerly
winds.

Saturday will feature an increase in low level moisture back into
North Texas with continued southerly flow. Skies are expected to
become overcast and will likely knock temperatures back down a
few degrees. We'll also see some weak ascent associated with the
shortwave moving through Mexico. Consensus is that the best rain
chances will remain well south of our area, but we'll keep some
20% pops in Saturday through Sunday mainly across the southern and
eastern counties for some scattered showers.

As we head into early next week, there is some discrepancy with
the handling of a strong shortwave through the northern
plains/Great Lakes region which could have an impact on our
weather. The GFS brings another cold front into the area with
ample moisture/instability available for scattered showers and
storms. Other guidance generally keeps the precip chances to the
east with a much weaker front. For now, will have some 20% pops
over the eastern half of the County Warning Area and monitor this over the coming
days.

Dunn

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 64 37 64 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 67 35 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 36 62 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 63 32 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 63 33 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 38 65 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 65 37 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 40 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 66 37 65 36 67 / 5 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 63 32 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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