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000 
FXUS64 KFWD 122325
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
525 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017


.AVIATION...
Northwest winds are beginning to subside this evening as a broad 
surface high builds into the region. By 9-10 PM, winds will return
to the WSW where they will remain through Wednesday morning. SW
winds will increase by midday Wednesday to 12-17 kts in advance 
of another dry cold frontal passage Wednesday evening. Have 
introduced the front's northwest wind shift in the extended DFW 
TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with only FEW/SCT high
cirrus.

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
/Tonight/

Calm weather is in store tonight, with northerly winds subsiding
to around 5 mph across North and Central Texas. Southwesterly
winds will return after midnight, still remaining around 5 mph.
The low wind speeds, clear skies and relatively dry air will allow
for temperatures to drop from the 30s to around 40 degrees across
the region. Slightly higher elevated moisture will stream into
Central Texas during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, leading to a
few clouds to start out the day. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
/Wednesday through Monday/

A split flow pattern will continue across the region through the 
end of the work week with an upper ridge along the West Coast, an 
upper low over Baja California and a progressive but dry northwest
flow regime over the Southern Plains. A shortwave (currently 
located over Alberta) will race southeastward through the Plains 
Wednesday, which will send a cold front through North and Central
Texas Wednesday night. After a chilly day today, a return to west
winds and compressional warming ahead of the front will lead to a
rapid warm-up Wednesday afternoon, and we have sided with the 
warmer end of guidance as a result (similar to Monday). West winds
and good mixing means that we have also gone with the drier side 
of guidance, and another elevated fire danger day is expected as 
minimum RH values fall into the teens Wednesday afternoon. 

Conditions will improve by sunset Wednesday as winds slacken and 
temperatures fall. The front will move quietly southward through
the area Wednesday night, and another cool and breezy day can be
expected on Thursday. A second and stronger shortwave will swing
southeast through the Plains late Thursday into early Friday,
sending a reinforcing shot of cool air southward and keeping
Friday's temperatures a few degrees below Thursday's readings.
The dry and breezy weather will keep fire danger elevated on
Thursday and Friday, but the cooler airmass should hopefully help
to mitigate the overall threat.

A slight westward shift in the upper level pattern this weekend
will send a third and yet stronger shortwave southeast from the
Great Basin into the Four-Corners area on Saturday. The system
will be far enough west to grab the Baja low and sling it quickly
northeast across Mexico and Texas Saturday and Saturday night,
then into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Models are in better
agreement now and are indicating a faster and more moist system
than previous runs. We haven't jumped on board with the likely and
categorical POPs (across the eastern counties) as advertised by 
the ECMWF, but an upward adjustment to the POPs have been made for
the Saturday / Saturday night timeframe based on model trends. 
The increase in low level moisture will also help to reduce fire 
danger, though the western counties will still experience an 
elevated fire threat where moisture return will be limited and 
the warmest air will exist.

Yet another cold front will push through on Sunday, bringing a 
return to cool and dry conditions during the early part of next
week.


30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  73  40  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                32  69  39  60  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               34  69  37  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              33  74  37  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            34  72  37  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              40  72  41  59  38 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             32  70  38  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           34  67  40  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              33  67  40  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       33  76  36  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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