Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 200920 
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
320 am CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Discussion...
a line of thunderstorms continues to progress steadily east across
the eastern-most counties of north and central Texas early this
morning. The bowing segment over the southeastern counties has a
history of producing damaging winds, and this threat will
eventually shift east of the forecast area as the leading edge
pushes east.

The upper level trough responsible for the convective weather
still remains west of the forecast area. An enhanced area of
ascent appears to be lifting north along the eastern flank of the
upper trough. This is resulting in a second line of storms over
south-central TX, which may end up affecting areas already hard
hit by damaging winds earlier. Instability has decreased
considerably in the wake of the initial line of storms, so chances
are that these additional storms will remain below severe limits.
Localized flooding associated with the multiple rounds of
convection will be the primary threat across the southeastern
counties through sunrise.

Stratiform precipitation will continue to affect the eastern
third of the region this morning, and may linger into the early
afternoon over the eastern-most row of counties. Rain will shift
east of all counties mid to late afternoon as the upper trough
continues trekking east across the state.

The upper level system is progged to transform into a cut-off low
Tuesday before shifting east-southeast across the northern Gulf.
The resulting shortwave ridging over Texas will keep conditions
warm and dry Tuesday through Thursday, with many areas reaching
the 80s Wednesday and Thursday under sunny skies. A cold front
will push through the area of Friday, cooling things to near-
normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Rain chances will
return late Sunday into next Monday as a shortwave trough and
another cold front affect the area.

30

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1152 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/
concerns...potential for thunderstorms through 10z.

An area of widespread showers and thunderstorms was approaching
the I-35 corridor at taf issuance time. This activity will move
northeast across the taf sites from 06z through 10z with lingering
showers expected through 13-15z. Ceilings in the precipitation
should be mostly MVFR. South winds around 10 knots will shift to
the west 10-11z but will come back around the south by 15z. Expect
mostly VFR after 15z. Winds will shift to the northwest at around
10 knots with a front around 09z Tuesday.

58



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 71 52 77 50 80 / 30 0 0 0 0
Waco 70 51 76 48 80 / 30 5 0 0 0
Paris 68 53 73 50 76 / 70 20 5 0 0
Denton 71 48 76 47 79 / 30 0 0 0 0
McKinney 70 50 75 48 79 / 40 5 0 0 0
Dallas 71 53 77 51 80 / 30 5 0 0 0
Terrell 71 52 76 50 79 / 50 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 70 54 75 52 80 / 50 5 5 0 0
Temple 72 51 77 48 80 / 30 5 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 47 77 46 82 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations