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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1137 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR through Saturday evening with south flow at all north and
central Texas terminals.

Subsidence under an upper level ridge has kept skies clear this
evening. Stratus was beginning to develop across the Texas Hill
country at 11 PM. We anticipate that these low clouds will advect
to the northwest based on the southeasterly low level jet shown
on the kfws radar wind profile. The only clouds expected at the
taf sites will be few to scattered cu and some mid level clouds
Saturday afternoon.

A southeast wind will prevail through Saturday evening at speeds
between 8 and 14 knots along with a few higher gusts.



Short term... /issued 347 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/
/through tonight/
north and central Texas resides on the western periphery of a
surface ridge over the southeast Continental U.S. And beneath the southwest
edge of an upper level ridge which extends from Texas to the
Great Lakes. Subsidence from the upper ridge has staved off
convection for the most part today. That said, some isolated
showers will remain possible through sunset generally west of the
Interstate 35/35w corridor within a plume of tropical moisture
which stretches all the way to the western Gulf.

For the overnight hours, the expectation is that the stratus
field will be farther to the west where the deep moisture fetch
will be, with slightly drier conditions at the lower levels along
and east of I-35. The result should be less in the way of stratus
Saturday morning along the I-35 corridor. Shallow moisture could
lead to patchy fog, however, which has been added to the southern-
most counties Saturday morning. Otherwise, south winds and
abundant low level moisture means another warm night with lows in
the 70s.



Long term... /issued 347 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/
/Saturday through Friday/
mostly dry weather is expected to continue through the weekend as
upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather across
north and central Texas. There will be a low chance of a shower
or thunderstorm across the extreme eastern zones Saturday.
Well above seasonal normal temperatures will prevail with highs
in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s to the 70s.

An upper level trough currently over the western United States
will slowly work its way eastward during the early and middle
parts of next week. As it does, a cold front is forecast to move
down the plains Monday and through north and central Texas Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
return to areas west of Interstate 35 Monday and chances will
spread east across the rest of the forecast area Monday night and
Tuesday. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, especially along and west
of the I-35 corridor but chances will continue through Friday.
Precipitable water values should be around 2 inches and forecast
storm totals of 1 to 4 inches of rain are expected along and west
of the I-35 corridor for the Tuesday through Friday period. Some
localized flooding will be possible. At this time, it looks like
the instability will be limited so the severe weather potential
should be rather low next week.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 78 94 75 94 74 / 5 10 10 5 5
Waco 73 94 72 94 72 / 5 10 10 10 5
Paris 71 93 70 90 69 / 5 20 10 5 5
Denton 76 93 71 92 72 / 5 5 10 5 5
McKinney 74 92 72 91 72 / 5 10 10 5 5
Dallas 78 94 75 94 75 / 5 10 10 5 5
Terrell 72 94 71 92 71 / 5 10 10 5 5
Corsicana 73 93 72 92 71 / 5 10 10 5 5
Temple 73 92 70 90 71 / 5 10 10 10 5
Mineral Wells 72 93 70 91 70 / 5 5 10 10 10


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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