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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
626 am CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR at all taf sites through Sunday morning with a mostly clear
sky. A light south wind this morning will increase between 8 and
12 knots around midday along with some higher afternoon gusts.

Low level moisture will increase tonight through Sunday as surface
high pressure moves east of the region and a surface trough
develops across the Central High plains. However, MVFR ceilings
are not expected until early Monday morning.



Previous discussion... /issued 317 am CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
another pleasant fall day is in store before warmer temperatures and
higher humidity return on Sunday and Monday. Low rain chances will
return to the forecast toward the middle of next week as a weak
front enters the area. Otherwise, the story will be continued near
or above normal temperatures and largely dry weather for the next
7 to 10 days.

This morning, ideal radiational cooling conditions are occurring
which is allowing temperatures to fall to their lowest point
since early may. A couple climate notes: a temperature in the low
50s seems likely for dfw this morning and the last time dfw was
52 degrees or lower was may 3rd when the low was 48 degrees.
Waco's low was 45 yesterday, but the last time the low was 44
degrees or cooler was April 7th when the temperature dropped to 43
degrees. We will warm up fairly quickly this afternoon though as
southerly flow strengthens resulting in warm advection. Overall,
conditions look fantastic for any outdoor activities taking place

Our next feature of note can be seen on water vapor imagery over
the northern Pacific. A series of shortwave disturbances will
traverse the central US next week. In advance of the leading
shortwave, the h850 ridge will continue shifting eastward resulting
in a better southerly fetch of Gulf moisture. This will mean
increasing clouds and humidity on Sunday and Monday as well as some
breezy south winds as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This
setup will also mean a return to above normal temperatures with
highs bouncing back into the 80s with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

As the lead shortwave enters the Central Plains on Tuesday, it
will prompt the development of a surface low in southern Nebraska
with a trialing cold front extending southwestward through the Texas
Panhandle. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are a bit more aggressive with
bringing this front into north and central Texas than on previous
runs which isn't surprising given they're also now depicting a
more vigorous shortwave than previous solutions. If this front
does in fact reach into our area on Wednesday as models currently
suggest, scattered thunderstorms would be possible along it.
However, the bulk of the forcing associated with the shortwave
will be displaced far to the north and east during this time,
leaving the front as the only mechanism for convective
development. Have continued the mention of 20 to 30 pops at this
time mostly along and north of I-20 where the front would have
enough potential to initiate some scattered storms during this
time. There will also be very little cool air behind this front
so it shouldn't knock temperatures down more than a few degrees at
the most.

The midweek front shouldn't take long to wash out with southerly
flow returning once again by Thursday night. An upper ridge will
build in behind the departing shortwave acting to keep the rest of
the forecast rain-free with continued above normal temperatures.
There is still quite a bit of disagreement and inconsistency on
the next potential strong front or widespread rainfall chances in
the extended guidance, but at this time it doesn't appear we will
see any drastic changes through the next 10 days.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 57 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 53 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 51 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 75 52 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 53 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 77 57 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 53 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 53 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 52 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 79 53 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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