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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
349 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Discussion...
we have had nice February weather today. After a cold start with
morning lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the region,
temperatures have risen into the 50s to around 60 degrees this
afternoon.

As a surface high that currently extends from northwestern
Missouri south-southwest into East Texas moves east tonight, light
mostly northeast winds will become east this evening and
southeast overnight. It will not be as cold as last night with
lows expected to range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s across
the region.

As a surface low that has developed over eastern New Mexico this
afternoon moves east into West Texas Sunday, the pressure
gradient will tighten across North Texas. A low level jet is also
expected to develop overnight which should start to advect Gulf
moisture northward, resulting in increased cloud cover from south
to north during the day Sunday. With strong warm advection expected,
some showers will be possible across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with the best chances being east of a Sherman to Killeen
line. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph by midday
Sunday and high temperatures will range from the lower 60s
northeast to around 70 degrees west.

As a shortwave moves across the plains, a weak front is expected
to sink south to near/just south of the Red River overnight Sunday
night before becoming stationary and then lifting back to the
north on Monday. The GFS keeps this boundary north of the Red
River while the Texas tech WRF, NAM and Canadian bring the front
south of I-20. The European model (ecmwf) stalls it out just south of the Red
River. They all lift the front back to the north Monday. There
will be increasing instability Sunday night which should result in
a chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the forecast
area with the best chances of rain being east of I-35.

A dryline will push east toward the I-35 corridor by midday
Monday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop east
of the dry line. With CAPES of 1500-2000 j/kg and 0-1 km storm
relative helicity of 200-300 m2/s2...some severe storms will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening.

The dryline will retreat Monday night, setting US up for another
chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and night. A
cold front is expected to sweep southeast through north and
central Texas overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Dry
and cooler (near seasonal normal) weather is then expected
Wednesday through Friday. Low chances of rain should return
Saturday ahead of another shortwave.

58

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1134 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
VFR and clear skies will prevail through tonight as generally
light winds veer from the north this afternoon, to the east this
evening, and to the southeast by daybreak.

Southerly low level winds will increase during the morning hours
Sunday and bring a rapid return of low level moisture. MVFR ceilings
should arrive into Waco around 15z and the dfw metroplex around
17z and prevail through the day. Moisture and instability
increases enough for a chance of showers by late in the afternoon
and will include a vcsh in dfw extended taf. Elevated instability
may be high enough Sunday night for scattered storms in the
tracon, but believe that the best potential for thunder will be
east and southeast at this time.

Tr.92



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 41 65 55 78 60 / 0 20 40 30 5
Waco 39 66 57 78 59 / 0 40 40 30 10
Paris 34 60 49 71 57 / 0 40 70 40 10
Denton 36 62 52 76 57 / 0 20 40 20 5
McKinney 34 62 53 75 58 / 0 30 50 30 10
Dallas 42 64 56 78 61 / 0 30 50 30 10
Terrell 38 64 55 76 60 / 0 40 60 30 10
Corsicana 40 66 58 78 61 / 0 40 60 40 10
Temple 40 66 58 78 59 / 0 40 40 30 10
Mineral Wells 39 67 50 78 54 / 0 10 20 10 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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