Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 160947 
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
347 am CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Discussion...
rain and thunderstorms continue to push to the east early this
morning as the upper low responsible for last night's round of
severe storms and flooding ejects northeastward into the Central
Plains. Where skies cleared out behind the line of storms, patchy
fog (some dense) has formed mostly along/west of I-35. Expect
visibilities to remain less than a mile and occasionally less than
1/4 mile in this area, and have gone with a dense fog advisory
through 9am. The advisory may need to be expanded farther east if
conditions begin to deteriorate.

Showers and storms will linger across our southeastern counties
today where a moisture gradient and weak surface convergence will
remain. Additional showers and storms may develop in this area
later this afternoon, but a lack of strong large-scale ascent as
well as limited instability should limit any storm's intensity.
In the meantime, drier air will be slowly filtering in from the
west across the rest of north and central Texas with light westerly
surface winds. Later today and tonight, a cold front (currently
positioned roughly from okc southwestward through the Texas
panhandle) will move through the area. Winds will become
northwesterly which will advect in cooler air overnight dropping
temperatures 5-15 degrees for Tuesday.

The aforementioned cold front will stall across south Texas on
Tuesday with a deepening upper low taking shape to our west. As
this low intensifies and moves toward the region Tuesday night,
isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will result in showers and
isolated storms developing across much of central Texas. Have
continued an upward trend in pops during the middle of the week
as guidance continues to advertise a higher potential for rain and
a few thunderstorms. With this activity being elevated above a
cooler surface layer well north of the stalled front, severe
storms are not expected. In fact, due to very limited instability,
activity may consist more of widespread showers without much
thunder. The highest rain chances will be on Wednesday with the
highest pops confined to central Texas through the middle of the
week.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin tapering off from west to
east on Thursday as the upper low begins shifting northward,
pulling the stationary front back north as a warm front.
Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer as south
flow resumes and some clearing skies allow for increased heating.
It appears our forecast area will be situated on the subsident
side of the departing shortwave during this time which implies
most of the thunderstorm potential will be shifting east of the
area for the rest of Thursday.

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the weekend, although
it does appear an active pattern will still send numerous
disturbances through the area into early next week. We should be
between systems on Friday with above normal temperatures
continuing. Guidance is suggesting another shortwave will be
digging southward through the Central Plains during this time
which would affect our weather for the upcoming weekend. This
shortwave would be capable of generating a deep surface low to
our north on Saturday/Sunday leading to additional chances for
thunderstorms across parts of East Texas.

-Stalley

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1155 PM CST sun Jan 15 2017/
/06z tafs/

Metroplex airports--the rain is ending from west to east across
the metroplex, and should be east of kdal by 07-08z. Light and
variable winds will become more westerly overnight. VFR cigs will
become clear in a few hours and there's a decent potential light
fog will develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will be keeping a close eye on this potential and for
now will indicate a 2sm from 09-16z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected but there may be a few low clouds as a front moves
through the region later today. The winds will shift to the
northwest late this afternoon with this front.

Waco Airport--showers and thunderstorms will continue near the
Airport through 08-09z. As the ceilings clear in a few hours,
light fog may develop due to moisture in place and a wet ground from
the rain. Will carry a 2sm from 10-16z but keep a close eye on
this development during the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. The winds will become westerly overnight
and then become northwesterly late Monday afternoon as a front
moves through the region. There may be a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorm near the front in the afternoon hours but at
this time the best rain potential is southeast of the Airport.

Jldunn



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 66 43 56 45 58 / 10 0 10 40 30
Waco 69 47 55 44 59 / 10 10 40 60 40
Paris 64 43 56 44 57 / 50 10 5 40 30
Denton 62 40 55 39 57 / 10 0 10 40 30
McKinney 63 42 56 42 58 / 20 0 10 40 30
Dallas 66 44 56 47 59 / 10 0 10 40 30
Terrell 67 45 57 44 59 / 30 10 20 50 30
Corsicana 67 48 57 47 59 / 40 10 40 60 40
Temple 68 48 55 45 59 / 20 10 60 60 50
Mineral Wells 62 39 55 40 58 / 5 0 10 40 20

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am CST this morning for txz091-
100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations