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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
400 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017

by mid-afternoon, a cold front had moved through the entire County Warning Area.
Adequate instability remains above the frontal layer, and as
large-scale lift associated with a mid-level shortwave swings out
of the Panhandle, numerous showers have developed. Thunderstorms
have been primarily confined to the leading edge of this
convection. As the lapse rates aloft continue to steepen, a few
of these updrafts may be able to support severe hail. That should
be the primary hazard as any gusty winds aloft will struggle to
penetrate the frontal inversion. Outside of the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, thunderstorms will still be possible until the
mid-level trough axis passes, but with tall/skinny cape, deep
showers should be the primary Mode.

The speed of the system aloft will allow the back end of the
precipitation area to reach the I-35 corridor by 00z (7 PM cdt)
and should exit the entire region by mid-evening. Gusty northwest
winds will make for a surprisingly chilly night for late may.
Skies will clear, and a few locations in the northwest may dip
into the 40s. Current forecast lows for Wednesday morning are
just above the record lows at dfw (54 in 1940) and Waco (52 in
1917). If the urban heat island can't prevent a record at dfw, it
will be the first record low for the site since July 20, 2014. The
northerly winds will continue Wednesday, but the may sun will
still allow afternoon temperatures to reach 80f across the
southwest half of the cwa, including the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex and the Waco/Temple/Killeen area.

South winds will return Thursday and Gulf moisture will make a
rapid return. Shortwave ridging aloft will push temperatures into
the mid to upper 90s across our far western zones Thursday
afternoon. An even warmer and more humid day will follow on Friday
with heat index values topping 100f across much of north and
central Texas. The exception will be west of an advancing dryline,
which may reach our far western zones late in the day. If the
boundary is able to thrust dryline/downslope westerly winds into
areas from Breckenridge to Graham, they may see the first triple-
digit readings of 2017. A Stout cap should prevent the dryline
from realizing any of the instability within the juicy surface
layer east of the boundary.

It may be a different story on Saturday when a cold front enters
North Texas. Keeping with tradition, this late season front may
decide to hang around for a while. If so, the best rain chances
would be across the southern half of the region for Sunday and
Monday. The forecast will hang on the position and potency of the
boundary, but areas along and north of I-20 boundary may see sunny
(or at least rain-free) weather for the latter half of the
Memorial Day weekend.



/issued 1252 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017/
a cold front has moved to southeast of a kprx (paris) to kinj
(hillsboro) to kmnz (hamilton) line as of 1730z. This front will
slide through the rest of the forecast area by 00z Wednesday.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and some embedded
thunderstorms to occur this afternoon as an upper level
disturbance that is currently over the Texas Panhandle moves
across the region. This activity should end around/shortly after
00z in the metroplex and around/shortly after 01z at Waco. VFR
conditions are then expected to prevail for the rest of the
forecast period.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 56 79 58 90 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
Waco 53 81 58 91 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
Paris 51 72 53 85 70 / 20 0 0 0 5
Denton 51 78 55 89 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
McKinney 52 76 55 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dallas 56 80 60 90 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Terrell 53 77 56 88 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 79 58 89 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Temple 53 83 59 91 74 / 20 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 51 80 55 94 72 / 5 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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