Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
958 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
all convective activity has dissipated with the loss of heating. A
few spotty showers will be possible through the night, especially
across the southeastern zones, closest to a weak disturbance
rotating north through Louisiana. Therefore, we will keep some low
pops going overnight.
Temperatures tonight will be tricky as some outflow air has
already cooled temperatures into the 70s. We will adjust hourly
temps based on current readings but not change the forecast lows
too much since we do not anticipate much additional cooling in
locations that are already in the 70s.
/issued 638 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016/
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed this afternoon in
the vicinity of a 850-700 mb confluence axis oriented from the NE
to SW across eastern Oklahoma and into north central Texas.
Convection has struggled mightily to sustain itself amidst very
weak flow, with multiple outflow boundaries surging well out in
front. That said, we've seen a recent uptick in isolated
convection along the leading outflow which currently stretches
from a kxbp-kftw-kgky-kdal line. As a result, opted to continue
thunderstorms in the vicinity at the metroplex sites through 02z as additional isolated
development will be possible until the atmosphere begins to
nocturnally stabilize. In addition, winds will remain out of the
northeast at 10 to 15 kts along with some gusts to around 20 kts
as a second outflow pushes into the metroplex shortly. Tonight
looks to be quiet across the region, with surface winds veering
around to the south at less than 10 kts.
Tomorrow, it appears as if the best combination of low-level
moisture and confluence will align itself in a NE-SW axis from the
metroplex, to just west of Waco. High-resolution guidance
continues to suggest the primary threat for afternoon convection
will remain along and northwest of this region. For the 00z taf
issuance, decided to insert vcsh into the metroplex and Waco sites
after 19z given indications that the main thunder threat should
remain to the north and west. We will continue to monitor trends
in subsequent guidance, however.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of convective
Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016/
overall no significant changes were made to the forecast, but triple
digit temperatures could be making a comeback to portions of the
western half of the County Warning Area starting early next week.
Showers and storms so far this afternoon have been confined to
mainly north of Interstate 30 with some isolated activity east of
Interstate 45. Will maintain a 20-30 percent chance for
convection across all of the region through the evening hours with
most of the activity expected to dissipate by 9 PM. Gusty winds
will be possible with any storms.
For the next few days, the upper level ridge will remain centered
west of north and central Texas while an inverted trough continues
to slowly slide west across the central Gulf Coast. A vorticity
maximum within the base of the trough is currently located along
the Louisiana/Mississippi border and will continue to slide
northwest tonight. On Wednesday, it will stall near the
Louisiana/Arkansas border, and north and central Texas will
remain between this feature and the upper level ridge to our west.
With ample moisture in place, the coverage of diurnally driven
convection is expected to be greater on Wednesday than today.
Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain will again be possible
with any storms.
On Thursday, the inverted trough to our east will merge with
another upper level trough moving east through the Midwest. The
upper level ridge will still be centered to our west so expect
isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon and
evening with slightly better rain chances across our eastern
counties. On Friday, rain chances will lower some across the
region as drier air begins to invade from the west.
Over the weekend, the upper level ridge will recenter over the
plains ending rain chances for most of the region this weekend and
at least early next week. A few showers on the afternoon sea
breeze may occasionally reach our southeastern counties but hardly
anyone is expected to see rain early next week.
It will continue to be hot and humid through Friday but humidity
levels are expected to start lowering over the weekend as the
drier air works its way in from the west. With the upper level
ridge repositioning over the area next week, several locations
along and west of Interstate 35 could reach the 100 degree mark
each day next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 97 79 98 79 / 10 30 30 30 10
Waco 75 97 77 98 78 / 20 30 30 30 10
Paris 74 97 74 97 74 / 10 30 30 50 20
Denton 73 95 74 95 76 / 10 30 30 30 10
McKinney 74 95 76 95 75 / 10 30 30 30 20
Dallas 78 97 79 99 80 / 10 30 30 30 10
Terrell 75 95 76 95 75 / 10 30 30 40 20
Corsicana 75 95 77 96 78 / 20 30 30 40 20
Temple 74 95 76 96 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 72 96 75 97 75 / 10 30 30 30 10