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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
302 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016

Synopsis...
warm and humid conditions persist across North Texas today...as
we remain on southern side of a weak front. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible this evening however the best chance for rainfall
should remain along the Red River. As the front drops southward on
Thursday cloud cover is expected to increase keeping temperatures
in the upper 80/lower 90s with rain/thunderstorm chances
increasing through the afternoon.

Once the front moves through the dfw area rain chances decrease
toward the weekend as drier air mixes into the region from the
northeast.

&&

Long term...
dry air moving into the region from the northeast
will keep most locations dry and mild through the weekend. Best
chances for rain/thunderstorms remains along the south and
southwest counties. Model data suggests that dewpoint
temperatures will not respond to the modest drying from the
northeast so any relief from the humidity looks to be limited and
temporary. There are very few changes in the day to day
forecast...with only slight variations in Max/min temperatures and
rain chances.

Van speybroeck/stalley

&&



Aviation...
/issued 1253 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 31 2016/
/18z tafs/

VFR conditions will prevail through midday Thursday. Scattered-
broken cumulus fields 4-5 kft are expected. Convective activity
expected to be weaker and more isolated through sunset due to
some warming mid level temperatures aloft. The 12z forward sounding
did indicate a modest subsidence inversion between 700-500mb with
these warming temperatures aloft.

Light N/NE winds around 5 kts will prevail through tonight,
before increasing from the N/NE around 8 kts behind the cold front
late Thursday a.M. Convective chances will increase with a very
tropical airmass interacting with the front and a shortwave
disturbance moving southeast toward the area by midday Thursday.
However, low level convergence at the cold front will not be
impressive with nearly unidirectional and weak surface winds on
either side of the boundary. Convective coverage will be high
enough across the dfw terminals to introduce thunderstorms in the vicinity after 16z
Thursday morning. Have left thunderstorms in the vicinity out at Waco with the cold front
being delayed until Thursday afternoon and convective chances
being lower.

05/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 92 73 89 72 / 10 50 30 10 5
Waco 75 93 73 90 72 / 5 30 20 20 10
Paris 73 88 69 87 65 / 20 40 20 10 5
Denton 72 89 71 88 69 / 20 50 30 10 5
McKinney 74 89 71 88 69 / 10 50 20 10 5
Dallas 78 92 73 90 73 / 10 50 20 10 5
Terrell 74 90 72 90 69 / 10 40 20 10 5
Corsicana 76 92 73 90 71 / 5 30 20 20 5
Temple 73 93 73 91 72 / 5 20 20 30 10
Mineral Wells 72 89 70 87 70 / 20 40 30 20 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

05/26

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