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000 
FXUS64 KFWD 261114 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
614 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Severe thunderstorm watch #161 in effect from DFW and points
north-east through 1 pm CDT. Scattered strong to severe storms
already occurring from Bosque County, through Tarrant/Johnson
Co(s) this morning. Majority of the activity should move east of
the CWA by Noon-1 pm CDT. 

05

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/
Breezy south winds will persist overnight with occasional gusts 
to around 25 kts or so, and MVFR cigs will prevail at all sites. A
nocturnal bore feature can be seen entering the region on radar 
imagery, and recent surface observations from KRPH indicate that a
northwest wind shift accompanies this feature. Should this 
move across the Metroplex sites, any wind shift would be brief, 
with a quick return to breezy southerly winds.

The main change from the 00Z TAFs was to introduce a mention of
VCTS at all Metroplex sites as it seems likely sufficient lifting
will occur to erode the lingering capping inversion as the main 
cold front arrives. Waco looks to remain far enough removed from 
the better forcing to preclude an explicit mention of thunder, but
have inserted a brief window of VCSH to account for southwestward
precip development. An abrupt northwest wind shift will accompany
the front, which should arrive between 13-14Z at western sites, 
and 14-15Z across the eastern Metroplex sites and Waco. 
Convective chances will quickly come to an end by 15-16Z as cooler
and drier air filters in. Cloud bases will then begin to rise, 
eventually to VFR Wednesday afternoon. 

Winds will then slacken as high pressure builds in overhead, and 
airports will likely be able to return to south flow late 
Wednesday evening. As winds go nearly calm, there is some 
potential for a shallow layer of fog to materialize, but this 
potential is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. 

Carlaw


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/
A busy day ahead as a strong surface cold front moving into the 
Wichita Falls/Abilene areas moves toward the I-35 corridor 
through sunrise this morning. The well-advertised, vigorous upper 
trough responsible for severe weather across Eastern Oklahoma this
morning will continue to swing quickly east across the Southern 
Plains today. A plume of surface dew points of 65-70 degrees was 
surging northward just ahead of the cold front and north up 
through the I-35 corridor and points east. This is maintaining 
good surface instability despite the non-favorable time of day. In
addition, very strong large-scale ascent will arrive by/after 
sunrise to help lift/moisten the modest EML/capping inversion 
through mid morning. This should allow for a broken line of strong
to severe storms to develop along or just east of I-35 after 6-7 
am CDT, then move east with the cold front through the morning 
hours, before exiting our far eastern counties early-mid 
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 deg/C and 
40-50 knot southwest effective shear will likely result in severe 
storms across especially the eastern third of the CWA. Large hail,
damaging winds, and frequent lighting will be the primary 
hazards. Though the tornado threat is non-zero, 0-1km winds and 
shear are already veering southwesterly as well with the more 
significant threat for tornadoes to be east/northeast of our area 
later today.

In addition to the severe weather threat with the cold front, 
strong CAA for this late in the season and a very dynamic, strong 
pressure gradient will likely result in windy conditions with 
very gusty west-northwest winds 20 to 25 mph, with a few gusts 
between 35 to 40 mph during the afternoon hours. Winds should 
rapidly decouple after dark with surface high pressure settling in
quickly for the overnight. Lows Thursday morning will range from 
the lower 40s along the Red River to around 50 degrees within 
immediate urban areas and across Central Texas. Downright chilly 
for the last week of April! Dry near zonal or dampened cyclonic 
flow aloft will result in mostly sunny skies Thursday, as a return
of south breezes and low WAA allow for a range of high 
temperatures of 75-80 degrees in the east, to 85-90 degrees in the
west. It will be fairly breezy again during the afternoon hours 
and lasting into Thursday night. 

Gulf moisture returns rapidly northward Thursday night and Friday
morning, as a surface warm front lifts readily northward back 
into the area. Return stratus clouds, breezy conditions, and the 
low level moisture will result in much warmer morning on Friday. 
With mid level heights rising (or weak mid level ridging), it 
appears the warm front will stall somewhere west and north of
I-20, with a surface dryline nudging into our far W/SW counties. 
While all this is occurring, another upper level system is 
deepening across the Southern Rockies, with a lead shortwave 
ejecting eastward across the Southern and Central High Plains. A 
low "conditional" chance for thunderstorms will be possible near 
the dryline and old frontal boundary draped somewhere across the 
far N/NW counties. With SW flow aloft over the area and some 
EML/cap expected, if a storm or two does develop, it would likely 
become severe with the strong winds aloft and very high SBCAPE 
values and mid level lapse rates at 8 deg C/km or higher. These 
would likely be supercells with very large hail, damaging winds, 
and could potentially be tornado along and just north of where the
stalled front sets up. Again, this very "conditional", but worth 
monitoring. 

Otherwise, have held to increasing convective chances, north of 
I-20/I-30 Friday Night within the nose of the strongest WAA, then 
across most of the area Saturday into Saturday evening, as the 
upper system rotates across the area and brings substantial large-
scale ascent across the area, along with a cold front late 
Saturday into Saturday night. All modes of severe weather will be 
possible on Saturday, with potential for flash flooding along and 
east of I-35 and north of I-20 where rainfall totals by Sunday 
morning may reach between 2-4 inches. Definitely worth noting 
along with the severe weather threat. 

Much cooler and brisk conditions arrive after daybreak Sunday 
with convective chances shifting east away from the area. Strong 
CAA arrives in wake of yet another strong late season cold front 
with highs hard pressed to get out of the 60s most areas. Cyclonic
flow aloft will transition to zonal or even weak ridging, which 
will result in dry conditions with gradual moderating temperatures
each day early next week. Another upper trough possibly affects 
the area again mid-late next week, but as of right now, models as 
expected are struggling on specifics of organization, speed, and 
track of features. 

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  50  81  65  86 /  40   0   0   0  20 
Waco                77  48  83  66  88 /  20   0   0   0  10 
Paris               69  45  75  59  82 /  80  10   0   5  30 
Denton              67  46  81  62  85 /  40   0   0   5  20 
McKinney            71  46  78  62  84 /  60   0   0   0  20 
Dallas              75  51  81  66  87 /  40   0   0   0  20 
Terrell             71  46  80  62  85 /  60   0   0   0  20 
Corsicana           77  48  79  65  87 /  40   0   0   0  10 
Temple              83  50  83  66  88 /  10   0   0   0  10 
Mineral Wells       68  45  86  62  88 /  10   0   0   0  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

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