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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
647 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

skies have cleared at the taf sites as of 00z. Areas of fog are
expected to develop toward 06z with 2-4sm visibilities and some
lower visibilities will be possible. A cold front will reach the
metroplex 09-10z and Waco 12-14z. Ahead of the front, winds will
shift the west around 5 knots and then become northwest around 10
knots with frontal passage. Any fog that develops should dissipate
by 14z. Winds will increase to around 15 knots mid to late
morning with some gusts over 20 knots possible.



Previous discussion... /issued 309 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Water vapor imagery shows the large upper low spinning across much
of Texas this afternoon with moisture continuing to stream
northward across much of East Texas. Drier air has moved in across
West Texas where skies are mostly sunny. A few higher based
cumulus clouds are noted on visible satellite imagery across West
Texas associated with the colder temperatures aloft but no
additional precipitation is expected tonight. The ongoing area of
light rain across the far eastern counties will continue to slowly
move east through the remainder of the day and should end by early

Our main concern tonight will be the potential for areas of fog to
develop...especially across our eastern counties. With the upper
low slow to move eastward...a surface trough still remains off to
our west. This keeps moist southerly flow in place across the
region. As temperatures cool tonight under thinning cloud
cover with wet ground...areas of fog are likely to develop. This
is most likely to happen across the eastern half of the County Warning Area where
drier air will be slower to move in from the west. The surface
trough will move east of the area Tuesday morning allowing much
drier air to filter into the region.

The remainder of the forecast looks very warm and dry. Mid level
ridging will pass overhead Tuesday through Thursday allowing
temperatures to climb into the mid 70s on Tuesday and lower 80s on
Wednesday. By Thursday...a strong shortwave trough will be
approaching the Central Plains. This will result in a deepening
surface cyclone across Kansas. Wind fields will veer around to the
south-southwest with a dryline advancing eastward through the
afternoon. Deep vertical mixing will result in gusty southwest
winds and temperatures warming well into the 80s and possibly as
high as 90 degrees across some of our western counties. We will
continue to monitor this as it could have some fire weather
impacts by late Thursday afternoon/evening.

Otherwise...a weak front will slide through the region on Friday
cooling temperatures back down into the 60s and lower 70s. A
reinforcing shot of cooler air will filter into the region on
Saturday. At this precipitation is expected either day.
Rain chances may increase slightly as we head into early next week
but no major systems appear to approach the region over the next 7



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 52 75 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 52 75 47 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 72 48 76 53 / 20 5 0 0 0
Denton 49 75 45 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 50 74 46 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 52 75 50 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 52 75 48 78 54 / 5 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 74 50 79 55 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple 52 76 47 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 49 76 44 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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