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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR with westerly winds becoming north with
cold FROPA this evening.

For both the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites, VFR will prevail over
the next 24 to 30 hours. High clouds around FL250-300 will
continue to stream in from the northwest around the periphery of a
building upper level ridge to the west of the area. Generally
westerly winds are forecast, though periods of variable winds will
be possible. A precipitation-free cold front is expected to slide
southward towards the Metroplex TAF sites around 29/0100 UTC. It
will usher in northeast winds of around 10 kt. Cold FROPA is
expected a few hours later at Waco with similar wind direction and
speeds.

24-Bain

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/
Quiet weather is expected through the coming weekend into early
next week. In the mid levels, the upper low that gave us the
rainfall this past weekend continues drifting west across southern
California/Arizona early this morning. Meanwhile, another deeper
upper low over the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will
drift south through the end of the week. At the surface, broad
high pressure was centered over the Permian Basin of West Texas,
with light southwest-northwest winds around 5 mph and temperatures
between the mid 50s and lower 60s. Scattered to broken mid and
high cloudiness was spilling over the building upper ridge over
West Texas and across the CWA early this morning. The main
challenge will be temperatures into early next week, then return
low convective chances mid-late next week.

Today, expect a large diurnal range in temperatures with
partly sunny conditions this morning, becoming mostly sunny by
afternoon. Dry air to our north and northwest will continue
filtering across the Red River and into North-Central Texas
through the day. This will allow for rapid warming by afternoon,
as weak veered surface low level flow and modest compressional
warming occur ahead of another cold front expected into the area
this evening. Highs today will warm well into the mid and upper
80s, particularly north of I-20, where a few readings will push 90
degrees this afternoon. Though it will be very warm, the low
humidity values will keep conditions from feeling too oppressive.

Winds will shift to the north around 10 to 15 mph behind the next
cold front this evening north of I-20. The cold front should will
clear our Central Texas counties before before sunrise Thursday.
Cold advection will be shallow, but relatively strong and will
advertise low temperatures slightly below MOS values Thursday
morning. However, wind speeds holding to near 10 mph should help
keep radiational cooling in check and temperatures from cooling
even more. Lows will fall mostly into the 50s with lower 60s
expected across our Central Texas counties. The frontal inversion
will deepen on Thursday as modest cold advection lingers behind
the cold front. Despite the abundant sunshine, will continue to
cut afternoon highs down slightly below MOS values. Look for
winds to diminish rapidly Thursday evening with a surface high
pressure ridge settling into the area and rapid decoupling by
sunset. A clear and crisp start to the day Friday is expected with
temperatures starting out in the 50s, before warming quickly
within the dry airmass back into the mid to upper 70s Friday
afternoon.

The current Great Lakes/Midwest upper low will sink slowly south
over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys this weekend, allowing for
increasing ridging aloft over the High Plains just west of the
area. The surface ridge slowly slides east of the area on this
weekend and result in a gradual return to weak southerly winds and
warmer temperatures in the 80s. Despite the warm up, surface dew
points holding in the 50s this weekend will maintain the low
humidity values across the area and pleasant conditions for
outdoor activities.

The near stationary upper low to our northeast will finally move
northeast into western New England early next week, as the next
system of concern moves over the Pacific Northwest and Rockies.
Increasing southerly low level flow will help draw higher dew
points from the Gulf of Mexico gradually into the area by mid
week. It will remain dry Monday and Tuesday despite continued warm
daytime temperatures in the 80s, as strong southwest flow aloft
enhances the elevated mixed layer across the Southern Plains and
Texas. The Western U.S. upper trough will continue deepening
across the central and southern Rockies Monday into Tuesday,
before lifting eastward over the Plains Wednesday and Thursday
next week. The Euro and GFS models do differ on magnitude and
timing for this system and will only advertise low convective
chances at this time. Another cold front looks to arrive by
next Friday and the second weekend of October with dry weather
returning.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  59  77  58  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                87  58  80  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               89  56  77  54  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              89  56  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            88  57  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              88  60  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             87  58  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           86  59  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              87  58  80  55  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       88  56  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/05

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