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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
645 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

morning showers and storms have cleared the taf sites but another
round of showers is expected over the next several hours. A cold
front and upper trough will result in increased shower activity
across north and central Texas by late morning continuing through the
afternoon hours. The potential for thunder today is non-zero but
too low to include in the tafs at this time.

For the rest of the morning, some IFR conditions will be possible
at Waco through 14z where a tempo group has been added for cigs
around 600 ft. Otherwise, MVFR cigs around 2 kft will be possible
along the cold front as it pushes southward and have tempo'd these
conditions at dfw metroplex terminals through late morning. North
winds will increase to 15-20 kts with some higher gusts behind
the front. Reduced cigs and vsbys will be possible with any rain
showers this afternoon but should not persist for an extended
period of time. The cold front and associated showers will move
off to the southeast by late afternoon or early evening resulting
in clearing skies. VFR conditions and northwest winds will prevail
through the remainder of the period.



Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Tue may 23 2017/
north and central Texas will remain in the left exit region of a
100 knot jet this morning. The large scale lift from this feature
coupled with copious amounts of low and mid level moisture will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
storms will be most focused along a cold front which will move
across the entire region through the day. Surface based cape will
be limited today which will keep most storms well below severe
limits. However, decent mid level lapse rates will support a few
tall storms which could become marginally severe. The primary
hazard will be hail up to one inch in diameter and brief damaging
wind gusts. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be
across the southern zones where instability will be the greatest.

All storms should move southeast of the region this evening once
much drier and subsident air filters in from the northwest. Clouds
will also clear quickly overnight which, when combined with the
dry air, will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Low
temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s in
the northwest to the middle 50s across the southern zones and
urban areas of the metroplex.

Dry northwest flow aloft will remain in place across the central
and Southern Plains on Wednesday as a deep upper trough digs into
the southeastern U.S. However, the cool and dry air will be very
temporary with building upper level high pressure and a return of
Gulf moisture. The upper ridge axis will translate east of the
region Thursday night as an upper trough develops across the West
Coast. Increasing low level warm air advection Friday should
result in the hottest day we have seen thus far this Spring with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and afternoon highs in
the 90s. Some of the western zones could approach the century mark
Friday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward and surface winds
turn to the southwest.

The hot and humid weather will continue into Saturday, but there
should be a few more clouds around which may keep temps a bit
cooler. Large scale lift will also be on the increase Saturday as
the upper trough moves into the central and southern rockies.
The atmosphere should remain very capped Saturday afternoon, but a
few storms may go up on the eastward mixing dryline. Better storm
chances will arrive on Sunday with the passage of a cold front as
per the GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions.

Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday night, but may return
to the southern zones Monday, if the cold front stalls across
south Texas as per the medium range solutions. For now we will
keep pops on Memorial Day low and confined to locations generally
south of I-20.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 76 55 82 60 90 / 50 10 5 0 0
Waco 76 53 83 59 90 / 50 10 5 0 0
Paris 74 51 73 53 84 / 50 10 5 0 0
Denton 74 51 79 56 89 / 50 10 5 0 0
McKinney 75 52 77 55 87 / 50 10 5 0 0
Dallas 76 56 81 61 90 / 50 10 5 0 0
Terrell 76 53 77 56 86 / 50 10 5 0 0
Corsicana 76 54 81 59 88 / 40 10 5 0 0
Temple 77 53 83 60 90 / 50 10 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 50 82 57 92 / 50 10 5 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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