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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1131 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

06 UTC taf cycle

Concerns---none major. VFR.

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire 06 UTC taf cycle.
Surface low pressure continues to slide eastward through The Ark-
la-miss this evening and in response, winds have become light and
westerly. A period of variable winds will be possible through
sunrise, but for brevity, i've omitted from the tafs. The light
winds should allow area terminals to start out in a south flow on
Wednesday morning. A few high clouds should invade from the west
and northwest. Surface winds will continue to back towards the
south and southeast through the day on Wednesday with speeds
approaching 10 knots as surface troughing to the north intensifies.
Winds will diminish Wednesday evening at the surface, while
increasing aloft. This may result in some minor concern for non-
convective llws, but overall, the potential appears low at this



Previous discussion... /issued 227 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/
weak front has pushed through the forecast area this afternoon
and only a few clouds remain over our eastern counties allowing
temperatures to warm into the 70s and north-northwest winds gusting to around
20kts. We'll see mostly clear skies overnight with temperatures
a few degrees lower than last night.

By Wednesday morning, the upper low moves towards the middle Gulf
Coast and we'll see weak ridging build into the area. This will
allow for rapidly warming temperatures by Wednesday afternoon but
generally light winds. These factors, along with the recent rains,
will prevent any fire weather concerns on Wednesday.

By Thursday, a more zonal upper level flow is expected but with
return flow at the surface, expect temperatures to warm even
further. Have mid 80s in for the metroplex which is near the
record high for dfw (86 degrees for Feb 23rd). Winds will also be
picking up on Thursday afternoon, with 15-20kts expected for much
of the area. Warm temps, low humidities and gusty winds are
all concerning factors for a critical fire weather threat, but
with the recent rain and the fact that fuels have begun to green-
up across the area, will hold off on any fire weather headlines
for now.

A weak front moves through the area Friday/Friday night which will
knock temperatures back down closer to normal to start the
weekend. Have left out any mention of precipitation associated
with this system as it looks pretty dry.

This weekend will be dry, starting off cooler on Saturday and
warming up by Sunday. Another upper trough moves towards the U.S.
West Coast early next week and begins a chance of rain locally
early Monday. For now, not looking at any significant rain maker
the first half of the week, just persistent rain chances each day
with relatively mild temps.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 48 80 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco 46 79 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
Paris 49 77 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
Denton 44 79 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 5 5
McKinney 45 78 53 83 53 / 0 0 0 5 10
Dallas 49 80 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 5 10
Terrell 49 78 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 5 10
Corsicana 50 79 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 5 10
Temple 47 80 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
Mineral Wells 44 83 51 88 49 / 0 0 0 5 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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