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000 
FXUS64 KFWD 090945
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
It's definitely a cold morning out there now as a strong 1040 mb
arctic anticyclone is settling in just to our northeast, although
perhaps not quite as bone chilling as we were anticipating a few
days ago. Temperatures this hour are generally running in the
lower 20s to near 30 degrees with a light northerly breeze
resulting in wind chills in the teens for many. Expansive low-
level cloudiness is spreading eastward this hour, and will likely
envelop most of our region today as residual moisture in the
850-750 mb layer is resupplied by increasing southwesterly flow
aloft. Given the potential for this cloud cover today, sided with
the cooler temperature guidance and even knocked a degree or two
off of that. Thankfully, wind speeds will be greatly diminished
from what we experienced yesterday.

High pressure slides east of the region on Saturday, which will
result in the return of southerly/southwesterly low-level flow and
swiftly increasing moisture. By Saturday evening, forecast
soundings reveal a saturated, or a near-saturated airmass in the
lowest 5000 feet or so, with very dry air above. This should set
the stage for the development of drizzle/light rain showers across
a good chunk of the CWA Saturday night. That said, the likelihood
of measurable precip looks pretty low at this time, and will cap
PoPs at 30 percent during this time frame. As a shortwave and
associated cold front approach the region on Sunday, shower
chances should steadily push east of the I-35 corridor before
chances come to an end Sunday evening. As all of the saturated air
seems to be relegated below 850 mb and well above 0C, the
potential for thunder appears very low at this time, and have left
it out of the worded forecast on Sunday afternoon. 

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region on Monday behind
this aformentioned front resulting in a nice, seasonable start to
the work week. The moderating temperatures will be short-lived,
however, as yet another arctic airmass will be intruding into the
northern CONUS on Tuesday. The leading edge of this rejuvenated
cold airmass should move through North and Central Texas somewhere
during the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning time frame, but
substantial model spread and run-to-run consistency issues are
plaguing this portion of the forecast. The GFS, which has
struggled mightily over the past few days with the timing of this
arctic front has largely been ignored in this forecast package
given its very tardy frontal timing on Wednesday afternoon.
Instead, a blend of the notably faster 09/00Z ECMWF and GFS
Ensemble mean seems more reasonable, and matches up a bit better
with the 09/00Z Canadian as well. Moisture profiles look very
meager during the frontal passage, and as a result, we've
maintained the dry forecast during the middle of the week. 

Temperatures behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday should not
be quite as cold as what we experienced this week, but will
nonetheless be about 10 to 15 degrees below average. As the cold
high pressure center migrates east of the region on Friday, return
flow and an approaching disturbance may bring about renewed
chances of showers towards the end of the week.  

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR with northerly winds becoming
southeasterly by Friday afternoon. 

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle
across all North and Central TX terminals. The previous cloud
cover has completely scattered with the departure of a weak low
level trough. The 00 UTC FWD RAOB did indicate some residual
moisture around FL070-FL080. With any weak perturbation in the
westerly flow, additional saturation and additional VFR stratus could
develop. This appears to be the case along an ABI to MKN to ACT
line. Additional cloud cover is attempting to creep southward from
Oklahoma as well.

With regards to the forecast, will start Metroplex TAF sites out
with SKC before VFR stratus develops around FL080 during the mid-
morning hours and into the afternoon. For the Waco TAF site, will
continue with a ceiling around FL070 through a majority of the 06
UTC TAF cycle. Northerly winds will eventually become easterly and
southeasterly through Friday afternoon at Metroplex TAF sites and
southeasterly winds are expected around sunset Friday at Waco. In
the extended portion of the forecast, some VFR ceilings may
redevelop just after 06 UTC Saturday, but to keep the TAFs simple,
I'll abstain from mentioning this at this time.

24-Bain


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    42  31  51  47  70 /   0   0   5  20  10 
Waco                41  31  50  48  70 /   0   0  10  20  10 
Paris               41  27  48  44  65 /   0   0   5  30  40 
Denton              40  28  50  46  70 /   0   0   5  20  10 
McKinney            42  28  49  45  68 /   0   0   5  30  20 
Dallas              42  32  50  48  70 /   0   0   5  30  20 
Terrell             42  29  49  47  68 /   0   0  10  30  30 
Corsicana           43  32  50  48  68 /   0   0  10  30  20 
Temple              42  31  50  48  69 /   0   0  10  30  10 
Mineral Wells       39  28  53  47  71 /   0   0   5  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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