Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 212344 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
544 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through 06z
Thursday. A cold front had swept through north and central Texas
as of taf issuance time (21/2320z). North winds around 10 knots
at the taf sites will increase to around 15 knots with some gusts
to 20 knots this evening. High clouds will move southeast away
from the metroplex early this evening and through Waco by 05z.
North winds around 15 knots will prevail during most of the day
Wednesday and as high pressure moves across region Wednesday
night, winds will become light and variable during the evening
before backing around to the south after 06z Thursday.



Short term... /issued 314 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/
a cold front will slide through the entire forecast area by
early evening, reaching the Texas Gulf Coast overnight. The front
should come through dry overall with very meager moisture ahead
of it. However, we will maintain some very low pops across the
extreme southeast zones this evening where there may be just
enough moisture to squeeze out a few sprinkles/brief showers.

Dry, cool and subsident air will move in overnight and result in
clearing skies and cold temperatures. Wind speeds will increase
during the evening as surface high pressure builds south across
the Central Plains. The breezy north winds will keep the decoupled
boundary layer somewhat disturbed and prevent temperatures from
falling too rapidly, but we still expect lows tonight in the
middle and upper 30s across the northwest half of the area.
Overnight lows across the remainder of the region will be in the
lower and middle 40s.



Long term... /issued 314 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/
/Wednesday and beyond/

The extended forecast will mostly consist of warm and dry
conditions with little/no chance for rain through the next 7

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will be well south of the
forecast area, but north winds and cold advection will continue
throughout the day. As a result, high temperatures will struggle
to reach 60 degrees and most of the region will only reach the 50s
on Wednesday afternoon. An upper ridge will continue building
across the western half of the country which will keep US in northwest
flow aloft through Thursday and Friday as a warming trend sends
temperatures back above normal.

Thanksgiving will be pleasant with temperatures about 5 degrees
above normal (60s and low 70s). A very weak front will move into
parts of North Texas during the afternoon hours, but will hardly be
noticeable other than a switch to light north winds. Temperatures
will climb higher on Friday as a Lee cyclone develops in the Texas
Panhandle region. Some breezy south/southwest winds will allow
temperatures to climb into the 70s or even low 80s. This will be
short-lived however, as another cold front moves through the
forecast area beginning Saturday morning. Cold air behind this
system will be limited, and will only drop temperatures to near
normal at most.

Temperatures will continue to hover slightly above normal into
early next week. The ridge is progged to break down toward the
middle of the week and strong height falls should overspread much
of the plains. The deepening trough will send a stronger cold
front into the area sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday which may
have sufficient moisture to generate a few rain showers. However,
this looks to be the only reasonable chance for rain in the next
7 days, and abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions should
continue to expand across much of the region. Otherwise, near or above-
normal temperatures are expected through the end of the month.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 40 56 36 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 44 58 32 68 44 / 10 5 0 0 0
Paris 36 54 32 61 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton 35 55 32 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 37 55 32 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 40 56 36 68 46 / 5 0 0 0 0
Terrell 40 55 32 64 42 / 5 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 43 57 33 65 43 / 10 5 0 0 0
Temple 44 59 33 69 44 / 10 5 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 36 56 32 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations