Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kfwd 221726 
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1126 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017



Aviation...
VFR through Thursday afternoon at all taf sites with only some
passing high clouds.

Northerly winds between 8 and 13 knots this afternoon will become
light and variable this evening once surface high pressure settles
over the region. The high pressure center will build east on
Thursday while a surface trough deepens across the northern and
Central Plains. This will turn the wind to the south with a
slow increase in speed through the day.

79

&&



Short term... /issued 259 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
/today and tonight/

Good cold and dry air advection persists today following
yesterday's cold front, which stretched along the Texas coast
early this morning. North winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour will continue
through much of the day before slackening this evening as the
surface ridge axis settles in across the region. Today's cold air
advection will do its best to offset solar heating, keeping high
temperatures mainly in the 50s. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air will create ideal radiative cooling conditions tonight with
low temperatures in the 30s expected area-wide (the exception
being The Heart of Dallas where the urban heat island effect could
keep low temps in the lower 40s). Patchy frost will be possible
in rural locations, and a few spots may even drop to 32 by sunrise
Thursday.

30

&&

Long term... /issued 259 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017/
/Thanksgiving through early next week/

The Holiday will start off chilly with lows in the 30s with
light and variable winds, as a broad high pressure ridge continues
sliding through the area. By afternoon, the surface ridge will
move southeast away from the area with modest southeast winds
10-15 mph returning. Highs will range from the 60s east to the 70s
west. Southeast surface winds will stay Thanksgiving night into
black Friday morning, as Lee side pressure falls deepen off the
Central High plains. Dry north flow aloft in between a deep upper
trough over the eastern Continental U.S. And a Stout upper ridge over the
western conus will continue into black Friday. Outside of the
occasional streak of mid-high cloudiness, any low level moisture
return will be minimal as the western Gulf of Mexico remains
scoured by recent cold fronts. No precipitation expected through
the day black Friday, as temperatures modify back into the 70s
areawide. Another cold front will appear on the horizon and enter
our far northwest counties just before sunrise Saturday morning.
This front will be dry like its last few predecessors with a
milder night in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The cold front will pass through the area during the day Saturday
under plentiful sunshine, as upper ridging continues to increase
across the region. Deeper low level cold advection through 850mb
looks to lag behind the surface front by 6-12 hours, with the
strongest thermal advection remaining north and east of the area
with a shortwave moving across the Missouri and Mississippi
valleys. Highs will be slightly cooler, but still in the lower-
mid 70s for most areas. After a slightly colder morning between
35-45 degrees on Sunday, the stronger cold advection will be
realized during the day Sunday, despite a return to southeasterly
surface winds around 10 knots. Highs in the mid 60s to the lower
70s across central Texas will be the rule Sunday afternoon, as
many return to the area from their Holiday adventures. The strong
upper ridge will continue to keep the area rain-free Sunday night,
with breezy south winds 10-15 mph helping to hold lows Monday
morning up between 45 and 50 degrees.

Gusty southerly winds continue into the early half of next week,
as a strong upper trough develops across the central rockies on
Monday. With the Continental shelf just off the Texas coast still
well scoured from several surface cold frontal passages, any
moisture return will modified and not rich. Mild, breezy, and dry
conditions will persist, as the dampening upper ridge keeps a lid
on our sensible weather. It does appear the deep latitudinal
rockies upper trough will draw a cold front into the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday, as it lifts across the Heartland and toward
the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes later next week. Have continued
the low chances for showers across the eastern half of the area
where slightly higher moisture content will be available.
Otherwise, instability appears pretty meager with Richer low level
dew points remaining relegated closer to the Gulf Coast and lower
Mississippi Valley. Highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday will cool
into the 50s/60s south on Wednesday in wake of the cold front.

05/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 56 39 69 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 59 33 69 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 34 63 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 55 34 68 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 56 35 66 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 56 40 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 56 35 65 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 57 35 67 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 59 34 69 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 54 34 72 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations