Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kfwd 272102
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
402 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
isolated showers and thunderstorms started to develop northwest
through east of Dallas. This activity has increased in areal
coverage and intensity with a couple of the storms getting close
to or becoming severe. Given the slow movement of the storms some
localized flooding is also likely. This activity is diurnally
driven and should dissipate before sunset. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms have been isolated except over the southeast where
the activity has been more in the scattered category.
The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of
thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. Low
chances of showers and thunderstorms will shift to areas southeast
of a Temple to Athens line Wednesday afternoon and evening. High
temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from
near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.
The warming trend will continue for Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging builds in from the west. The combination of the
temperature and humidity will result in heat index values of 98
to 107 degrees both days. A heat advisory may be needed for
Thursday and Friday for parts of the forecast area. There will be
low chances of thunderstorms across the southeast again Thursday
afternoon and evening and across the east and near the Red River
A cold front will move down the plains Thursday as a upper level
trough moves across the northern and Central Plains. This front
will move down to or just south of the Red River overnight Friday
night into Saturday. A thunderstorm complex is expected to develop
along the front and move southeast into North Texas. Strong gusty
winds and heavy rain will accompany some of the storms.
A slight cool down is expected Saturday across the north.Highs
Saturday will rang from the upper 80s northeast to the mid 90s
Hot and rain-free weather is expected Sunday through the middle
of next week as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Lows will be in the 70s and highs will be in the 90s to slightly
over 100 degrees.
Aviation... /issued 1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/
isolated showers and thunderstorms started to develop across
areas from the metroplex north and eastwards around 17z. Thus we
added vcsh in the metroplex tafs for the 18z to 22z period.
Additional development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon southeast of a kgzn-k0f2
line this afternoon and most of this activity is expected to
dissipate toward sunset. Outside of the showers/thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected through 10z Wednesday. Some MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop overnight coming into Waco around 10z and
continuing through 15z and maybe up into the metroplex between
12z and 15z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 73 93 75 95 79 / 10 5 5 5 5
Waco 71 91 74 96 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
Paris 69 90 72 91 74 / 10 5 5 10 10
Denton 70 92 73 96 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
McKinney 70 91 73 93 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
Dallas 74 93 76 95 78 / 10 5 5 5 5
Terrell 71 91 73 94 76 / 10 5 5 10 10
Corsicana 71 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
Temple 71 91 73 96 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 70 92 72 95 74 / 10 5 5 5 5