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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
323 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

the warm and dry weather is expected to continue through Monday
as an upper level ridge remains over the Southern Plains. On
Saturday afternoon, a stray shower associated with seabreeze type
activity may creep into our far southern counties, but will carry
a silent 10% chance for rain due to the isolated nature of this
happening. Southerly winds will continue across the region with
generally partly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Wind speeds on
Saturday will be breezy in response to a weak trough moving
through the central Continental U.S. And a surface low moving across the
plains. Dewpoints in the 60s will surge a little farther north
each overnight-morning period and some stratus is expected to
return north across parts of the region through Monday. The
forecast Monday evening looks pleasant and enjoyable for outdoor

By Tuesday, the upper level ridge will have moved east of the
region as an upper level trough develops across the western Continental U.S..
as this trough moves into Southern California, the southern extent
detaches off into a cut-off low and briefly stalls. This allows
the upper level ridge to build back west over the Southern Plains
where it continues to influence our weather through the end of
next week. There are still low rain chances in the extended
portion of the forecast but depending on the return/strength of
the ridge, it's possible these may eventually be removed from the

Rain chances officially enter the forecast starting Tuesday. The
upper level ridge will still be centered to our east, and several
models indicate a weak disturbance will move north on the western
periphery providing some support for at least isolated activity
Tuesday and Tuesday night. By this time, better moisture will be
returning north with pwats increasing over 1.50 inches. Forecast
soundings during this time indicate thunderstorm activity may be
isolated as instability will be low and lapse rates will be weak.
During the day on Tuesday, the rain chances are confined across
our central Texas counties but spread north to east of the
Interstate 35 corridor Tuesday night.

On Wednesday and Thursday, will keep low chances for rain across
the region. On Wednesday, we will remain in southwest flow aloft
between the upper level ridge still to our east and the cut-off
low to our west. Adequate moisture will remain in the region but
there will not be a sufficient source of lift, so at the time
anticipate any shower or storms will be isolated and kept pops at
20%. On Thursday or Friday, a front is expected to slide into the
region as the upper level ridge builds back across the Southern
Plains. The GFS has the front on Thursday but the European model (ecmwf) is on
Friday. There may be a low chance for rain with the front, but
lift is again minimal with the upper level ridge overhead. Have
tempered MOS guidance numbers for the end of the week towards
warmer numbers and will adjust where needed as we approach this



/issued 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period at the dfw
metroplex sites. At Waco, however, there is a low potential for
some borderline MVFR/IFR stratus around 12-15z as moisture spreads
northward through The Hill Country. Therefore, have opted for a
brief tempo mention for kact during this time. Winds will remain
out of the south through the period at all sites with speeds
increasing to around 15 kts at the dfw metroplex airports Saturday
afternoon. High clouds will be on the increase as a shortwave
approaches the area.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 64 88 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 63 88 64 87 63 / 0 5 5 5 5
Paris 61 85 63 86 63 / 0 0 5 0 0
Denton 62 88 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 62 85 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 61 86 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 61 87 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 60 86 63 87 62 / 5 10 10 5 5
Mineral Wells 60 89 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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