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FXUS65 KFGZ 252208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry conditions will continue through this
evening. An unsettled pattern will arrive on Sunday and last into
early next week, with breezy and cool conditions along with a 
good chance for rain and snow showers. A drying/warming trend is
then forecast Wednesday through the end of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions will continue across northern
Arizona through late afternoon ahead of an approaching storm
system. Dry conditions are forecast through the overnight hours.

Two systems are then forecast to impact the region Sunday through

System #1: Sunday will see a quick shot of precipitation across
northern Arizona. Snow levels will generally be in the 4500-5500 
ft. range with snow accumulations generally less than one half an 
inch. Temperatures will continue to be below normal.

System #2: Monday afternoon through Tuesday will see the 
potential for appreciable precipitation accumulations. Forecast 
models were initially wet, then scaled back, and now are looping 
back to a wet solution again. The latest model runs continue to 
paint a wet picture for the Monday-Tuesday period resulting in 
increasing confidence for increasing precipitation chances.

The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast over areas south
of I-40 primarily over Yavapai and Gila counties, and along the 
Mogollon Rim. Snow levels are forecast to be in the 5500-6000 ft. 
range. Currently it looks like snow amounts along the Mogollon Rim
will be appreciable, with Flagstaff forecast to receive around 6 
inches, Show Low around 2 inches, and Alpine around 4 inches. 
These forecast amounts will likely change with future model runs.

For now it appears that little to no snow accumulations are 
expected for Prescott or Payson. However, rainfall amounts near 
one inch will likely cause rises in creeks and streams in Yavapai 
and Gila counties. No major flooding impacts are expected at this

Precipitation chances should taper off Tuesday night. A drying and
warming trend is then forecast to commence Wednesday, and 
continue through the end of next week with above normal high 
temperatures expected Thursday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for increasing high and mid-
level clouds overnight in advance of an approaching storm system. 
Clouds will lower and thicken on Sunday with areas of MVFR ceilings 
and showers spreading from west to east across the high terrain of 
northern Arizona. The snow level will range from 4500-5500 feet MSL. 
Southwest surface winds of 10-25 knots will become light after 
sunset. Another round of southwest winds at 10-20 knots on Sunday. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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