Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 231117
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
417 am MST Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis...high pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this Holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough Thanksgiving day through Saturday to challenge long
standing high temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions
are expected early next week.
Discussion...only minor changes to the forecast through the
Holiday weekend as an unseasonably strong area of high pressure
remains parked over the southwest United States. High temperatures
each day will range from 15-20+ degrees above average for late
November, with records falling in some locations. Some occasional
high cloudiness is expected today and Friday, but generally thin
enough to allow for mostly sunny skies. Wind speeds will be light.
By Monday into Tuesday, a trough is forecast to move eastward
across the region. While most of the moisture with the system will
remain north of the state, the latest runs indicate a slight
chance of some showers, mainly along the Utah/Arizona border. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of the front Monday should become north to
northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures by Tuesday will
be cooler, possibly even slightly below normal before beginning a
warm up on Wednesday.
Aviation...for the 12z package...expect VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies and light winds. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
Fire weather...record warmth will continue into the weekend as warm
high pressure remains over the southwest. Expect daytime highs of 15
to 20 degrees above average. Wind speeds will generally remain light.
A trough approaching the area from the west on Sunday will lead to
increasing southwest wind speeds. As the trough moves through the
region Monday and Monday night, it will push a mostly dry cold front
through northern Arizona. Expect windy conditions Monday into
Tuesday with the frontal passage.