Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
445 am MST Sat Aug 27 2016
Synopsis...a Flash Flood Watch is in effect today for Coconino and
Yavapai counties. Expect thunderstorms with cooler than normal
daytime temperatures to continue this weekend. A drying and warming
trend may start early next week, before increasing moisture and
storm chances return mid week.
We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of Yavapai and Coconino
counties through 7 PM MST tonight.
There is a well defined upper level shortwave moving through srn
Nevada this morning. Lift from the this wave has produced a line of
strong tstorms moving eastward through Yavapai and srn Coconino
counties at 430 am. Measured rainfall has been as high as 0.50 inch
in 30 minutes, with stronger echoes not passing over a gage. Cloud-to-ground
lightning count has been around 500 strikes per hour with this line.
Storms are redeveloping behind the line along the Arizona California Nevada border
now. Progs move the upper wave slowly across nrn Arizona this afternoon,
bringing additional dynamic lift. We expected basins in the watch
area to see several rounds of thunderstorms through today, with
heavy rain and hail.
Didn't have time to look beyond sunset Sunday, the previous
discussion covering next week follows - drier and warmer weather is
forecast Monday into Tuesday with the best chance of storms near the
Arizona/nm line. Later Tuesday into Thursday, a trough over the West
Coast could pull deeper moisture back north into the area increasing
our thunderstorm chances.
Aviation...for the 12z package...expect scattered to numerous
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain west of a line from kpga-kflg-kpan through 18z. MVFR/IFR
conditions are likely under the stronger storms. After 18z, good
chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain spread eastward to include all of northern
Arizona, with at least isolated storms forecast through the evening
and overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
Public...dl / mas
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