Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kfgz 291202 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
500 am MST Wed Mar 29 2017

Synopsis...gusty north through northeast winds will diminish later
this morning. Winds will increase again Thursday afternoon and turn
to the southwest as another cold low pressure system approaches the
state. This next storm will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to the area Thursday night through Saturday, along with colder


Discussion...gusty northerly gradients have developed overnight
behind a low pressure system, now over eastern New Mexico. These
winds will be short-lived as a S/WV ridge moves over the area
tonight and early Thursday. Another deep and cold upper low will
move into the area by Thursday night and Friday, with gusty
southwest winds developing Thursday afternoon.

The trajectory and speed of this low will limit the amount of
moisture available. Despite this, very strong cold air advection and
dynamics will allow for some shower and thunderstorm development.
Moisture and instability will persist into Friday and maybe Saturday
as the low stalls over New Mexico. S/WV ridging arrives Sunday, with
another similar upper low arriving Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation...for the 12z package...expect VFR ceilings/visibilities
through the 24 hour period across the majority of northern Arizona.
MVFR possible through 18z in the White Mountains. Gusty, but mainly
localized north to northeast winds are expected to continue through
the morning hours at locations immediately south of the Mogollon
Rim, White Mountains and Chuska Mountains. In these areas, gusts
into the 25-35kt range are possible, with wind speeds peaking around
15z. Between 18z Wednesday and 01z Thursday, most locations will see
winds varying from the northeast to northwest, with sustained winds
around 10-15kts and gusts into the 15-25kt range. Aviation
discussion not updated for taf amendments.


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations