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FXUS65 KFGZ 180333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
833 PM MST Sat Mar 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS... The next system will bring more rain and snow
overnight, ending from west to east during the day Sunday. 
Accumulating snow is expected for elevations above 5000 feet, so 
be prepared for winter driving. Drying and warming conditions 
return to the area early to mid week.


Slight tweak to chances of precipitation and precipitation 
amounts to account for satellite and radar observations. Forecast 
remains on track for the next winter weather system to impact the 
this evening through Sunday. 


.PREV DISCUSSION /215 PM MST/...The current storm remains on track
with an associated cold front pushing from west to east across
Arizona overnight. The dynamics for upward motion/upslope flow
are modestly strong and will interact with moisture that is in
place for a round of rain and snow showers across northern
Arizona. The snow level currently ranging from 6500-7500 feet
will lower rapidly overnight to 4000-5000 feet Sunday morning.
The best chance for showers will be from about 900 pm MST tonight
through Noon MST Sunday. The deepest moisture and strongest lift
will impinge upon the Kaibab Plateau southeastward to portions of
the Mogollon Rim and Black Mesa. Across these areas a general 2
to 6 inches of snowfall will be possible with lighter amounts
over the mountains areas further east. At lower elevations look
for rainfall amounts in the 0.05 to 0.25 inches range. It will
also be breezy with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph through the

On Sunday...The storm will rapidly head eastward with improving
conditions at most locations by Noon. The exception, far
northeast Arizona could see a continuation of a few snow showers
through the afternoon. Look for a chilly and windy day with
temperatures in the upper 30s in the mountains to lower 50s in the
valleys. Also, pressure gradients will be quite strong from about
Winslow eastward with afternoon wind gusts on sunday approaching
45 mph.

For Monday and beyond...High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern through Wednesday with warmer temperatures, partly cloudy
skies and generally light winds. A very slight chance of a shower
will sneak over northwest Arizona late Wednesday. Starting
Thursday and lasting into next weekend an unsettled weather
pattern returns with another round of cool and windy conditions as
well as a good chance of showers.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Rain and snow showers with 
deteriorating conditons are west of KPGA-KPAN line at 06z Sun. These 
conditions to spread eastward overnight with several hours of IFR to 
LIFR conditions. Clearing from west to east aft 16z Sunday though 
scattered showers to persist across Apache county through Sunday 
evening. Surface winds S-SW 10-25kt. Aviation discussion not updated 
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers will develop this afternoon across 
western Arizona. Rain and snow will increase and spread east tonight 
bringing wetting precipitation to most areas by Sunday morning. 
Showers will diminish Sunday afternoon with cold and breezy weather 
continuing. Warmer and dry conditions are forecast for Monday. 

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure will bring a return to 
warmer weather Tuesday and early Wednesday. Breezy and unsettled 
conditions may return by Thursday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Sunday FOR AZZ009-015-016-

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Sunday FOR AZZ004-006-007.




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