Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 232221
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
321 PM MST Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis...cool and breezy conditions will persist this weekend
as a low pressure system sits over the Great Basin. Expect
freezing temperatures for much of the high country Sunday and
Monday mornings. A chance for precipitation returns starting
Wednesday of next week.
Discussion...low pressure is centered over southern Nevada this
afternoon pushing even cooler air into northern Arizona. In
addition, a deck of stratus clouds has filled into northwestern
Arizona. The clouds may be thick enough over the North Rim to
produce a few sprinkles or a very light shower with otherwise dry
and breezy conditions persisting. Expect winds to diminish around
sunset allowing overnight temperatures to drop quickly. We expect
more widespread freezing conditions tonight above 6500 feet along
and north of the Mogollon Rim where a freeze warning remains in
effect through early Sunday morning. Some of the colder spots
around Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon will drop easily into the
The aforementioned low moves through Utah and into Colorado on
Sunday with breezy and cool weather in its wake lasting through
the first part of next week. Similar low temperatures are
forecast again Monday morning.
Forecast models are in pretty good agreement through the extended
range with developing a closed low over the southwest by
Wednesday of next week. This will result in a showery weather
pattern that looks to last through the week as the low slowly
meanders around the region.
Aviation...for the 00z package...expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Look for south to southwest winds from 10-25 knots at most
places early, diminishing after 02z. Light winds on Sunday. Aviation
discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...on Sunday and Monday, look for light winds, dry
weather and well below normal temperatures.
Tuesday through Thursday...expect light winds and below normal
temperatures. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase
on Wednesday and Thursday as a weather disturbance and associated
moisture sets up over Arizona.
Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...freeze warning from midnight
tonight to 8 am MST Sunday for azz004-007-011-015>017-039.