Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 221111
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
410 am MST Mon may 22 2017
Synopsis...expect mainly dry and warm conditons this week. Breezy
to windy conditions will return to the region Thursday and Friday.
Discussion...a weak S/WV passed through southern Utah late Sunday
afternoon, bringing a few high-based showers to our northern zones.
This S/WV is now over south-central Colorado and will brush a weak
trough across the white mtns today. There may be enough mid-level
cooling with this feature to squeeze out another shower or two over
zone 17, that is about it.
Elsewhere, dry northerly flow on the eastern side of a high
amplitude Pacific Ridge will dominate the weather today. The ridge
axis then moves across the state by Tuesday and Wednesday. This
means a few warm and sunny days are on tap, with light winds.
The ridge begins to break down later this week and into next
weekend, with 5-10 degrees of cooling and a significant increase in
southwesterly winds. At this time, the area looks to remain dry
under this pattern.
Aviation...for the 12z package...VFR conditions to continue over
the next 24 hrs, with northwest winds 10-20 kts during the daytime hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...isolated high-based showers are possible in the
White Mountains this afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected.
Otherwise, expect dry and warm weather through Tuesday with typical
Wednesday through Friday...expect warm and dry conditions Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds will gradually increase Thursday and Friday with
relatively cooler temperatures.