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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Update...
issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A few lingering showers continue to move northeast and gradually
east from the Rugby to Cando to near Langdon area at 04z. They
will continue to advance slowly east and northeast thru the
overnight. Very light amounts as reflectivites have gone down.
Otherwise high and mid clouds with this band over NE ND into
central ND. Clear area Fargo to Bemidji then an area of lower
clouds advancing northwest thru eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
These will impact parts of our southern fcst area but how far
north they go is uncertain. Did up sky cover in the far south
though. 925 mb winds in the 35-45 kt range are mostly above the
surface but tightening sfc gradient over the Red River causing south
winds to be a bit higher than model/MOS progged in the 15-25 mph
range.

&&

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Showers associated with short wave lifting NE through S central
Canada have struggled so far to reach the forecast area. Global
models way overdone on qpf and high resolution model guidance
confines any pcpn to northern tier of NE ND counties during the
overnight. Will follow trends of the later for pops tonight.
Minimum temperatures should be similar if not a degree or two
warmer considering warmer highs today. Currently feel there will
be enough mixing to preclude very much in the way of fog.

Could see some lingering -ra/sprinkles along the ND/MN/Canadian
border area in the morning otherwise another quiet day. Column
does cool slightly so Max temperatures may be a few degrees cooler
than today.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The overall prolonged dry and relatively quiet split flow weather
pattern looks to persist across the northern plains in the extended
forecast period. As has been recent past storm track is expected to
remain south of the area with another couple Central Plains systems
moving south of the area. As a result above normal temperatures are
expected with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and low 40s
through the weekend and into next week. Low probabilities for
precipitation are confined to the northern areas on Saturday and
Sunday with the passage of a northern stream 500mb short wave. More
wide spread chances are expected on Tuesday with the next Central
Plains system taking shape a bit farther north than the past few.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Kept VFR at the taf sites. South winds thru 12z a bit higher than
prev fcst mostly in the 15-20 kt range in east ND/rrv. Watching the
area of MVFR cigs moving northwest into west central Minnesota and
eastern South Dakota and think they will impact parts of west central Minnesota and
far southeast ND overnight into parts of Thursday but attm kept them
south of Fargo per short range model progs as very dry air remains
in place between the system moving thru Iowa and the system over
NE ND/central ND.



&&

Hydrology...

Issued at 255 am CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Low temperatures tonight through late week look to remain above
freezing at night, so expect the snow melt to continue for areas
that still have snow.

The crest forecast for the Park River at Grafton has been adjusted
down slightly. This morning the pool at homme dam has leveled off
around 1801 ft. This seems to be the pool height crest and not just
a slowing down of the melt runoff with cooling temperatures
overnight. The fact that the pool height appears to be cresting
early suggests that there were significant losses from the snowpack
to sublimation and infiltration in the Park River basin.
Therefore...based on the response at homme dam, the crest value of
the park at Grafton has been adjusted downward to 14.5 feet, with a
range potential of 13.5 to 15.0 feet.

The Red River continues to rise north of Grand Forks, with Pembina
still looking to reach 43 to 45 feet around April 3. Hallock reached
moderate flood stage this morning and is expected to crest around
807.0 feet sometime Thursday afternoon before beginning to recede.

Melting continues across the Pembina river basin, with both Walhalla
and Neche near action stage. The forecasts currently show Walhalla
reaching minor flood stage, and Neche is still forecast to
eventually rise to major flood stage Saturday evening.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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