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000 
FXUS63 KFGF 280306
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 201

Issued dense fog adv for NE ND til 15z tuesday as unknown how 
long fog would last. Some short range guidance as mentioned in 
previous update did have clearing of the fog and low clouds from 
the north overnight and it appears that is what is happening as 
fog is lifting in Langdon, Cavalier and Rolla and getting better 
in DVL. So maybe the fog adv was a bit too large and may be able 
to dropped or shaved in area the next few hours as trends become 
further established. also a few rain showers have formed near DVL 
at 02z and moving east into W Walsh county and strong enough on 
radar to drop a 0.01 or so so added pops to the grids thru 06z for
narrow region near the showers and east. &&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The main challenge for tonight will be potential for fog
development. The low stratus over the northern valley has been
gradually eroding from all sides over the last few hours as sun
angle increased during the afternoon and east winds picked up a
tad...advecting in drier air. My forecast based on the clearing
trends clears out majority of Grand Forks county by mid-
evening...although the clearing trends have slowed down the last
30 min. So especially the ND side of the northern RRV may not
clear out prior to sunset...allowing it to remain cloudy through
the night. Best chance for this to happen will be Pembina and 
eastern Walsh...and still thinking GF county will clear. There is 
also a band of cu stretched across NE ND that should dissipate 
this evening as well.

Remainder of the area will be clear for a good portion of the
evening with some increase in sky cover west of the valley by
morning. This will allow radiational cooling although tonight
there will be a slight easterly component wind which will be
somewhat drier air than last night. Do have areas of fog across
the region by 4 AM CDT...however not confident enough right now to
go dense fog and issue a headline. Best chance for headlines would
be in NE ND where overnight continuation of snowmelt adds to the
low level moisture. Warmest overnight lows will be across w cntrl
MN...generally in the mid-30s. With more clearing, portions of my
NW FA should fall into the upper 20s.

Dry on Tuesday with more sunshine and more areas climbing into the
50s...especially in the areas of lower albedo over Beltrami
county, where daytime highs today reached the upper 50s. Low 40s
in the northwest where some snow exists and a cooler start to the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tuesday night through Thursday...The medium range models are in 
fairly good agreement on split flow with the northern branch 
shortwave coming out into the Dakotas. There has been a weakening 
trend with models bringing very little QPF into the area for 
Wednesday/Wednesday night Kept the very low POPs we had going for 
the northern counties. Temps will be highly dependent on what clouds 
do, but with southerly winds and warm air advection expect readings 
for the mid week period to be above seasonal averages. 

Friday through Monday...A stronger northern branch shortwave will be 
approaching for the end of the week, and models are in decent 
agreement on some precip coming in as the wave moves through and a 
cold front pushes down for Saturday. Will keep some fairly high POPs 
that the blend of longer range models gives us. Temps will get 
knocked back a bit with the cold front Saturday but should bounce 
back on Sunday as upper ridging builds in again. Model consensus 
starts to diverge at the end of the period with the GFS showing weak 
upper ridging and the ECMWF more progressive with southwesterly flow 
aloft ahead of the next system. Will keep some low POPs going along 
with warmer than average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low clouds and areas of fog to re-form tonight and likely impact
most TAF sites to some degree. Fargo and Bemidji would seem to 
have the least long term impact but confidence in timing of low
clouds/vsbys at any one TAF site is low. Of the TAF sites GFK is
most prone to see LIFR conditions, DVL second most prone, followed
by TRF, FAR, and BJI. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Impacts from snow melt runoff will begin to make its way into the 
Grafton and Pembina areas this week. River levels are expected to 
continue to quickly rise at Grafton into major levels with an 
expected crest between 14.5 and 15.5 feet. Moderate flooding is 
expected by the end of the week at Pembina as northern valley 
tributaries combine to push the river into the 43 to 45 foot 
range late this week. 

Streams are beginning to show some response across the Devils Lake 
basin and along the Pembina River to field runoff. Most culverts 
remain frozen however should begin to slowly open as the 
temperatures remain above freezing for all but a few hours in the 
morning. As a result continued slow rises are expected on the 
Pembina River and across the coulees and streams of the Devils Lake 
basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-007.

&&

$$

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