Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kfgf 231134 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

issued at 634 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

No updates needed.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 313 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Activity on radar is finally starting to dry up. There has been a
little deeper moisture over the central Dakotas and up around the
Lake of The Woods. A weak low level jet has been focusing into
the activity that has been weakening in the Cando ND area. Overall
what little shower activity left over the forecast area will likely be gone
in the next hour or so.

Generally expecting today to start out like yesterday, a mix of
sun and clouds. With daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm
activity will once again start to pick up, especially by afternoon
and evening. The most favored areas for today will be over
southeast ND (closer to the 500mb low) and the Lake of The Woods
region (near a weak convergent surface boundary). Cape values will
be similar to yesterday (mainly 500-1000 j/kg) while effective
shear stays weak. So this will yield the pulse type storms again,
on the non severe side. Highs warmed more than expected yesterday,
so will stay on the higher side of high temp guidance today.
Minimal low level jet energy around tonight, so most shower and
thunderstorm activity should wane with loss of heating. However,
with the proximity of the 500mb low, isolated activity will
continue after sunset.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 313 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Sun through Tue...this period will feature upper low propagating
to the east along a tract from the northern High Plains to
northeast MN by late Tue. Cape values will be highest from the
southern valley into west central Minnesota but the lack of shear
and defined surface features should provide scattered non severe
thunder chances buoyed by daytime heating principally Sun
afternoon into the evening. The same type of action could very
well be repeated for Mon before the low heads well east on Tue,
reducing the pop chances during that time. High temps will drop
closer to seasonal levels, from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wed through Fri...zonal flow will predominate during this time,
and although a shortwave could pass through this regime once or
twice, we expect this to be a mainly dry period. Flow will turn SW
once again perhaps as early as Fri with the ECMWF, a bit later if
you believe the GFS.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 634 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Starting out fairly clear, with light winds and no showers yet.
Expect with Morning Sun there will be some late morning cumulus.
Then by mid afternoon, it will become scattered to broken with some hit and
miss tstms in the area. Since it will be spotty, elected to keep
the tafs with just thunderstorms in the vicinity. However, one of these showers or tstms
may drift over a taf site. Since they will be slower movers, they
could drop some heavy rain too.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations