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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

issued at 950 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Vsbys are improving across the dense fog advisory area, with just
a couple of stations still reporting vsbys less than a quarter
mile. Web cams show sun coming through in places and winds have
also come up a little. So although a few stations are still
reporting quarter mile vsbys, they are pretty spotty. Therefore
will let the dense fog advisory expire at time at 10 am. Will keep
some patchy fog in the forecast past 10 am, as it has not
completely gone away yet. Otherwise after the fog scours out, the
question will be how much sun filters through today. Visible
satellite imagery does show thicker clouds along and east of the
Red River valley, with more filtered sun to the west. So may also
decrease cloud amounts a bit west of the Red River valley.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 322 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Fog and cloud trends the main issue the next 12 hours. There was
an area of clearing which moved into the Devils Lake area last
evening spread into Cooperstown and clipped Grand Forks and into
Fargo but also have some high clouds above it. Fog in Devils Lake
basin has spread a bit east and southeast thru 08z toward Grand
Forks. But also there is a band of low clouds and no fog north of
gfk so this may move south. So at the present time expanse of
dense fog is still questionable so will do Special Weather Statement. But monitor. For
the rest of the day...clouds feel will stick around most
areas of some variety...but drying does occur late today into this
evening as warm advection gets going. But also time of year and
warm adv over the cloud layer (if it remains in place) may act to
keep lower clouds in where low clouds dont clear out. Anyhow did
go a bit cloudier today and a bit cooler than prev fcst.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 322 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Friday should be a mild day with mid 50s to mid 60s across the
area as mild air is south of the low that will be moving along the
international border. Colder air behind this system will not drop
south til Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation will remain
north of the border.

Upper level features continue to show a more zonal pattern with
precipitation associated with a wave crossing the area in the
middle of the forecast period.

For Sunday...the high pressure retreats eastward with return flow
and increasing thicknesses pointing toward moderating temps...with
highs reaching into the mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will
see some gustiness associated with the south to southwest winds.

By Monday and Monday night...a wave crosses the area providing
another chance for measurable precipitation. For now...looking at an
initial round of pcpn associated with a warm frontal boundary...with
wrapping moisture in the wake of a cold front. Thickness values and
850mb temps continue to show rain as the main form of pcpn at this
time. Tuesday the precipitation will move out of the
area and cooler conditions are expected in its wake through the end
of the period.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A very messy aviation forecast with the usual uncertainties with
IFR cigs/vsbys in many areas through the morning and some
improvement this aftn. Fargo and far southeast ND cleared out of the low
clouds and so far Fargo area has been in VFR but uncertain if that
will last so did keep a tempo group for MVFR cigs to move in.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for ndz006>008-



short term...Riddle
long term...Hopkins/Riddle

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