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FXUS63 KFGF 262020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Mostly sunny skies are expected through the remainder of the day
across much of the forecast area. The only exception will be
across north and northwest Minnesota where a persistent cumulus
field has developed in a less stable airmass influenced by a weak
upper level shortwave north of the Great Lakes region. Slight
instability of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE in this region may allow for
an isolated thunderstorm or two in this region later this evening. 

Otherwise, a few clouds and breezy conditions will persist across
eastern ND/western MN. Winds are expected to gradually diminish
through the evening and overnight hours as surface high pressure
shifts to the east. 

Rain chances will increase across eastern ND early Sunday morning
as precipitation associated with a subtle mid level wave propagate
into the region around an upper level ridge axis. This early
morning precipitation is expected to move out of the region and
make way for a second round of showers/thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon. A deepening surface low across central SD will cause a
northward flux of higher theta-E air into the southeast ND/west MN
region. Deterministic and short- range ensemble guidance suggest 
a boundary layer airmass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 
50s/low 60s will support moderate instability of 1.5-2.5 kJ/kg 
MLCAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. 0-6 km Bulk Shear 
values of 30-40 knots will support organized convection that will 
pose a threat for severe hail up to one inch and strong wind gusts
up to 60 mph. While convection will likely be focused a surface 
warm front across the southern River Valley, uncertainty remains 
as to the degree of destabilization from daytime heating due to 
early morning showers/cloud cover and whether forcing along the 
front will be sufficient to initiate convection. As such,
trends in surface dewpoints and cloud cover will have to be 
monitored to assess the afternoon severe potential. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Temperatures... Hot weather continues Monday for the Memorial Day 
Holiday. Cooler temperatures begin to move in Monday with 70s and 
the low 80s in the Devils Lake Basin and along the international 
border. Cooler weather moves across of the rest of eastern North 
Dakota and northwest Minnesota Tuesday with temperatures still above 
normal but not like the recent record setting temperatures. By late 
next week temperatures could even to fall to close to normal as a 
cooler air mass moves in.

Thunderstorm Potential... Thunderstorms and showers on Monday with 
potential for strong to severe storms. This will depend on what 
happens Sunday as any significant convection on Sunday will reduce 
the chance for strong to severe storms Monday. Bulk shear values on 
Monday across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota in the 
NAM are in the 30 to 55 kt range which would support strong to 
severe storms. What is more in question is the instability, 
especially after potential Sunday convection. MU CAPE varies 
significantly from near 0 up to 3500 J/kg, but in the areas with the 
better shear values go up to closer to 2300 J/kg in the NAM and GFS. 
Thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday and Wednesday but it is 
too early to say much about thunderstorm strength for those days.

Excessive Rainfall Potential... Monday into Wednesday high 
precipitable water values in the NAM and GFS are above the 90th 
percentile for nearby sounding climatologies (BIS, ABR, and INL). 
This is supported by the previous upper low becoming dislodged and 
the trough moving towards the Northern Plains. Dryer weather 
expected Thursday before another chance for rain Friday into 
the next weekend as an upper level trough moves into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Guidance has been having difficulty capturing the stronger wind
gusts across the region as the surface trough slowly pushes
eastward. Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible through the
afternoon hours. Winds will begin to die down tonight and into
tomorrow morning. Mostly clear skies now will give way to cloudy
conditions overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. 




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