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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No significant updates needed for this late evening.

Update issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No significant updates planned for this early evening. Band of mid
level clouds and scattered showers now moving across southern Manitoba
will spread brief periods of sprinkles or light rain showers
mainly along the northern tier counties of northeast ND and
northwest Minnesota through the evening and overnight hours.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For tonight the forecast concern is precip chances. Short wave
moving east along the international border this aftn with a sfc
low just southwest of Williston ND. This system will move east
tonight with the surface low a tad south of due east to near Fargo
around 09z and into central Minnesota by 12z sun. Most of the saturation
for rainfall will remain just north of the international border
for most of the event...but some models such as European model (ecmwf) does start
moving precip area a bit south of due east into more northwest Minnesota late
tonight. Thus overall highest qpf likely nr a Brandon Manitoba to
Morris Manitoba to Roseau line. With southern edge nr a dvl-gfk-
pkd line. Good upper level divergence and 800-850 mb frontogenesis
with the system so narrow band of higher qpf certainly psbl closer
to the half inch range but most areas 0.10 to 0.25 inch.

Winds to switch to the north behind the sfc low over ern ND
overnight and this will likely drag down some MVFR cigs.

The upper level wave moving east across northern Minnesota on Sunday
morning. The far northern Red River valley east into the Lake of
The Woods region may see some rain Sunday morning from this
feature. Most of the area should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy
skies on low level clouds move south on the backside
of the surface low moving east through the Twin Cities area Sunday

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term period starts off with a surface high that will
move into the area on Sunday night. Have gone a bit cooler with
lows Sunday night...closer to MOS the high will be
slowing drifting through the region. Some low clouds/precip in the
north may help keep temps up a bit in that area.

Upper level ridging will then move into the region on Monday...with
light return flow at the surface making for a pleasant day. On upper wave will pass through the NE/South Dakota and southern ND
area. Some light rain will be possible across the area...mainly in
the south. Another wave will quickly follow across the north on
Wednesday...bringing another shot of rain to that area on Wed/Wed

Another upper ridge will follow the mid week upper ridge...bringing
drier and possibly warmer temps for Thursday...and perhaps the south
Friday. Models diverge on when to bring the next upper wave through
the region...either late Friday or Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected across the forecast area throughout the
evening hours. Areas of MVFR ceilings and very light rain are
possible along the Canadian border into 06z. Aft 06z expect
widespread low VFR to MVFR cigs and areas of very light rain to
slowly spread south and eastward across far northeast ND and far
northwest Minnesota into the mid morning hours... staying mainly alg and
north of the U.S. Highway 2 Corridor. North winds will increase
at 10kts gusting 18kts through the forenoon. Ceilings should lift abv
VFR across northeast ND in the late forenoon...while areas of MVFR
ceilings could linger in northwest Minnesota into early afternoon.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle
long term...knutsvig

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