Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Adjusted POPs as the rain has been staying a bit further west than
expected. Still think that most of the showers should be moving
out and affecting only our far eastern tier in the next few hours.
Lowered lows a bit in the west where skies have cleared out. 

UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Showers have been digging a bit further south than expected, so
adjusted POPs further into the southeastern counties. There has
been some clearing on the western edge of the CWA. Dew points are
in the mid 30s, but there is quite a bit of wind for mixing
overnight. Lowered lows just a bit into the lower 40s in the far
western tier. 

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Made a few tweaks to POPs as rain over the northern valley is
expected to slowly move east this evening. Winds have decreased to
below advisory criteria so will let the headline go on schedule at
00Z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

500 mb low moving north-northeast and at mid afternoon located
northeast of Winnipeg. Water vapor loop showing drying aloft
wrapping around the upper low entering the Red River valley and
have seen winds pick up a tad more with 40+ mph gusts and
sustained winds 30 mph at a few sites around Grand Forks and
fargo. Until now the strongest winds have been Devils Lake to
Cooperstown to Valley City where winds are still in the 30 to 45
mph range.

Will allow wind advisory to go til 00z.  

Also will hang on to higher pops late aftn/early eve into the
northern RRV and NW MN as another area of showers now dropping
back southeast around the upper low across northeastern ND.
Otherwise followed short range model blend approach to cloud and
precipitation which does slowly bring the showers to and end in
the nrn RRV this evening and Monday morning in the far eastern
fcst area. Clouds clearing eastward overnight but not clearing in
Bemidji-Baudette areas til Monday aftn. Lows in the low-mid 40s
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

After the 500mb low pushes into the Great Lakes, the Tuesday through
Friday period will feature ridging and dry weather. Normals for late
September are generally in the mid 60s for highs and low 40s for
lows. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little
above these readings. The pattern shifts to southwest flow aloft by
the upcoming weekend and the models show quite a bit more spread
into their solutions by then. Guidance threw in some low pcpn chances
and will keep them as is for now. At this point, any pcpn for the
weekend would be minimal. Weekend temperatures continue to look
similar in the near or just a bit above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The MVFR ceilings are finally only impacting KBJI, with some VFR
level clouds further west towards the Red River Valley. The MVFR
ceilings will hang around the east as the upper low continues to
slowly move across the area, so KBJI will not go VFR until later
tomorrow morning. Even the VFR clouds will eventually clear out
during the day tomorrow across the western four TAF sites. Winds
are around 15 to 20 kts and will pick up during the late morning
with some gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. Winds will go down again
by evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...JR

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations