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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
405 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 405 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The main challenge today will be cloud trends and temps. South
winds early this morning have remained steady or even gusty in a
few locations, helping to keep temperatures up as well, especially
along the Canadian border. This will help to continue the fairly
rapid snowmelt up in that area. Expect to see a mix of clouds and
sun today, with highs just a little cooler than yesterday. There
are a few light sprinkles or showers on radar, but have seen no
ground confirmation of anything. This activity should continue
through sunrise then dissipate. Winds become light again tonight,
so there could be a few spots with fog, but overall not expecting
too much.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 405 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Next weak impulse brings some light pcpn into the northwest forecast area on
Friday. Bigger effect will be more cloud cover in the west and
therefore a little cooler temps there too. These rain chances then
spread eastward to include most of the northern forecast area Friday night
into early Saturday. Again, this brings more cloud cover to the
north and slightly cooler highs Saturday.

The flow remains progressive through the period. The flow was split
with the northern stream over southern Canada and the southern
stream over the southern states. The flow becomes more consolidated
by the end of the period. Longwave trough west of Alaska shifts to the
Gulf of Alaska. Zonal flow over southern Canada becomes a flat long wave
ridge over western North America.

At the beginning of the period, both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS have
shifted south. Also the GFS was trending a little slower over the
past couple model runs. Toward the end of the period, the European model (ecmwf) was
slower and farther south while the GFS becomes faster and farther
south over the last couple model runs. Will blend the models.

High temperatures about a degree or so for sun, Mon and Tue. Wed
high temps were decreased one to three degrees from yesterdays
forecast.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Kept VFR at the taf sites. South winds thru 12z a bit higher than
prev fcst mostly in the 15-20 kt range in east ND/rrv. Watching the
area of MVFR cigs moving northwest into west central Minnesota and
eastern South Dakota and think they will impact parts of west central Minnesota and
far southeast ND overnight into parts of Thursday but attm kept them
south of Fargo per short range model progs as very dry air remains
in place between the system moving thru Iowa and the system over
NE ND/central ND.

&&

Hydrology...

Issued at 405 am CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Low temperatures through late week forecast to remain above freezing
at night, so the snow melt will continue for areas that still have
snow.

The crest forecast for the Park River at Grafton has been adjusted
down slightly. The pool at homme dam has leveled off around 1801 ft.
This seems to be the pool height crest and not just a slowing down
of the melt runoff with cooling temperatures overnight. The fact
that the pool h&&

The Red River continues to rise north of Grand Forks, with Pembina
still looking to reach 43 to 45 feet around April 3. Hallock reached
moderate flood stage and is expected to crest around 807.0 feet
sometime Thursday afternoon before beginning to recede.

Melting continues across the Pembina river basin, with both Walhalla
and Neche around minor flood stage. The forecasts currently show
Walhalla at minor flood stage, and Neche is still forecast to
eventually rise to major flood stage Saturday evening.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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