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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Short term...(this evening through thursday)

Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Very few radar echoes remain across northwest Minnesota with
just a drizzle report here or there. Therefore, dropped all pops
by late afternoon. The main challenge will then be fog potential
overnight/early Thursday morning. Model soundings depict
lingering low level moisture across the area with surface high
pressure building in behind a weak cold front/trough passage.
Have included fog mention in the grids west of the Red River
valley where winds will be the lightest. Current thinking is
winds will stay up closer to 10 kts or more further east and
inhibit any development. With plenty of cloud cover expected to
persist, low temperatures tonight should't drop too far into the
upper 30s/around 40.

Previous model runs tried to cut down on cloud cover for Thursday
across the entire area but more recent runs keep the 1000-500 mb
moisture lingering. Therefore, tried to slow down any clearing in
the west while the east probably won't see much of a break at
all. With southerly return flow increasing throughout the day,
temperatures should be able to reach nearly 60 degrees across the
less cloudy areas to the west while the east remains in the low
to mid 50s.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)

Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The long term period starts off with an upper level wave
approaching from the west Thursday night and a surface low moving
east through the western Dakotas. Winds will be southerly Thursday
night helping keep temps in the mid to upper 40s. The first push
of cooler air will enter the northwestern zones early Friday
morning...along with low clouds and perhaps some light rain. The
main cold front will cross the Canadian border late in the
afternoon when winds switch from northwest to north. Rain will
skirt the northern zones Friday and Friday night...with highs in
the mid to upper 60s far south to low to mid 50s far north.

A cool air mass will be in place on Saturday as high pressure
will be settling in from the north. An upper wave to the south
will push warm air north with a good band of frontogenesis helping
to produce some rainfall along the south. Our area might be on the
edge of the rain...expanded area but stayed with slight chance for
now across far southern zones.

An upper ridge moves through the area on Sunday...followed quickly
by another upper wave Sunday night and Monday. There looks to be
some good isentropic lift ahead of this wave. Models indicate the
potential for a half an inch or so in some areas. After this
wave...models diverge on how active of a pattern will exist for the
rest of next week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Area of -ra/-dz east of the Red River valley continues to
decrease in intensity. Therefore, removed any mention at ktvf/kbji
after 19z. Cloud shield remains across the area with not a lot of
confidence in any breaking up or clearing throughout the period.
IFR ceilings (even LIFR at kdvl) should gradually improve to MVFR
by this evening, however. South winds will turn more to the
southwest this evening and overnight and remain 5-10 kts.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Lee
long term...knutsvig

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