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fxus63 kfgf 261206 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

issued at 705 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Tweaked the pops a bit for current radar trends. The precip will
move north-northeastward across the central Red River through the rest
of the morning, and should lift into the northern County Warning Area during the
afternoon. A few spots showing some light br but not widespread or
dense enough to include a fog mention at this point.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 357 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Rainfall placement today will be the main issue for the period.

The upper low currently over far eastern Montana will lift across the
region and into southern Ontario today. The main surface low remains
to our south and east but with the upper low coming through there
will be some broad synoptic scale lift going on throughout the day.
High resolution short range models have an area of rainfall moving
up the Sheyenne and southern Red River valleys, which is a bit
further west than previously thought but fits the current radar
trends. This rain will continue to push northeastward through the
rest of the morning, bringing rain to much of the County Warning Area although the
Devils Lake basin looks to get clipped more than hit head-on.
Amounts in that area will be just a few hundredths in comparison to
a quarter to a half an inch which will be possible further east.
Temps will stay in the low to mid 50s today as even as rain tapers
off this afternoon clouds will keep US pretty cool.

Tonight, there will be a bit of light rain lingering over the
northeastern counties during the evening, but otherwise a drying
trend will start as northwesterly flow aloft sets up behind the
upper low. Surface high pressure will move down into the Central
Plains and low pressure over southern Canada will keep the County Warning Area with
westerly winds. Winds and lingering clouds will keep temps from
bottoming out too much but readings will still be pretty cool, down
into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 357 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Wednesday and Thursday...northwesterly flow aloft will keep
conditions fairly quiet for the period. A few models bring a weak
shortwave in on Thursday and generate some shower activity, but most
keep US fairly dry. Uncertainty is high so will leave pops out for
now. Temps will rebound on Wednesday into the 60s, although a weak
front coming down Thursday will knock them back a few degrees. Lows
should be fairly seasonable in the 40s.

Friday through Monday...Friday will begin cold with morning lows
in the upper 30s near the international border and low 40s toward
the South Dakota/tri-state border. A warming pattern is expected
during the day Friday into Saturday as an upper level ridge builds
over the northern Great Plains. At the surface... southerly winds
will bring warmer temperatures to the region with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s expected for eastern North Dakota and mid 60s
for northwestern Minnesota. During the day Sunday... southerly
winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with highs reaching into the
low to mid 70s in the Fargo region and into the low 70s towards
the international border. Guidance is in good agreement that a
cold front should be passing through the area Sunday night into
Monday morning with cooler temperatures expected behind the front
Monday and Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 705 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

All sites are IFR except kdvl which has some ceilings above 3000
ft. Rain and low stratus will continue to impact most of the taf
sites through the morning, but will move out of the kfar area by
afternoon. The rain will move out of the area of taf sites before
00z, leaving some MVFR cigs for a few hours before sites become
VFR. Will have to watch for fog formation after sunset late in
the period, but not confident enough to include in the tafs at
this Point. North to northwest winds will shift around to the
southwest by tonight, remaining under 12 kts.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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