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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
631 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A few lingering rain showers near bji, so adjusted pops up a bit
for the next hour or so before the showers finally move out of the
area. Sat loop still shows clouds have cleared out of the west and
will push out of the eastern counties around 03z.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A short wave continues to move east along the Canadian border late
this afternoon. This is helping to push scattered showers through
the area as well, with these showers moving east at about 35
knots. At this rate, all the remaining pcpn will be east of the forecast area
in another hour or so. After this exits, it will be dry until the
next wave arrives and follows about the same Route, beginning in
the far northwest forecast area Saturday afternoon. Wind has been the other
big story today. Winds have been quite gusty since mid morning.
These winds will begin to decrease a bit after the clearing line
comes through and they shift a bit south-southwest. Much lighter speeds are
forecast for tonight into Saturday.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The long term will be relatively quiet with a few periods of rain
showers, mainly in the mid to late4 part of next week. For
Saturday, a zonal pattern across srn mb will bring a sfc low across
the South Dakota. An inverted trough associated with the low will
then bring a chance for light rain showers along the international
border Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s
for the majority of the long term period while daytime highs will
generally be in the 50s.

An amplifying ridge over the northern rockies will ensure dry
weather and ample sunshine for Sunday and Monday.

A more SW flow pattern sets up aloft by Tuesday, with the first of
two mid-plains cyclones developing as Gulf moisture becomes more
available next Tuesday. The best chance for precipitation will be
Tuesday night into Wednesday as warm advection showers lift into
west central Minnesota mainly Wednesday morning. At this point,
will keep all rain showers as potential for convection decreases
significantly by late October. There are significant differences
between European model (ecmwf) and GFS on timing and placement of precip, but GFS is
producing the majority of the pops in the superblend and yields no
cape for the period, hence only mentioning rain showers. Wednesday
night will be dry before the next system brings a chance for showers
across the area near the end of the week. There are also borderline
rain-snow mix conditions for the latter part of the week...however
with the GFS being dry and the European model (ecmwf) showing above 0 c temps at h850
and h825 levels where it indicates precipitation, will remove any
mention of snow.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Showers will impact kbji for another hour or so before exiting
east. All sites are VFR. Several of the high resolution models
develop some fog just east of the Red River overnight. Winds are
from the west and are not very favorable for fog formation,
although a few of the models have them dropping off in speed
towards daybreak. Will keep fog mention out for now but will take
another look before the 06z tafs to see if visibilities start to
come down.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...godon
long term...speicher

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