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fxus63 kfgf 231307 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
707 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017

issued at 704 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low cloud area moving slowly east and clearing out of dvl
area..but has moved into tvf and will soon the bji area. Areas of
fog around the edges of this cloud mass too....Valley City,
Gwinner and around Thief River Falls. Will maintain patchy fog for
a few more hours. Cloud trends today will play a huge role in
temps. For now no changes.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 322 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017

500 mb ridge from Southern California into Montana today. One
short wave moving around the ridge with sfc low developing over
central Saskatchewan toward 00z Fri. A lot of warm air 850-925 mb
layer moving in during the day...with peak warmth just abv the sfc
tonight. Question is how warm at the sfc in our area and cloud
cover. An area of low level moisture has been moving southeast and
slowly east thru eastern ND and will be moving into northwest Minnesota pre-
dawn. Nam12 and hrrr indicate this moist 925-850 mb layer will
gradually keep moving east today...but slowly so that much of NE
ND into northwest Minnesota may well stay in clouds today. This will limit
warming so idea of 30s for highs seem reasonable. In areas that
get more sun today and on the edge of a very warm airmass in the
western and south central ND will see temps push into the 50s. How
far east this gets is in question but latest hrrr shows this warm
air and a bit more of a southwest to west wind shift into Valley
City and far SW fcst area this aftn where 50s a good bet. Tight
thermal gradient no doubt will exit btwn Jamestown and Fargo and
Minot and Devils Lake. Mild tonight as enough wind to keep
temperatures from falling much...the higher terrain of the western
Red River may see temps rise some as very warm air exists at 925 mb
(+14 to +17c). Though mixing will be likely blo 925 mb.

Some chance of light rain late tonight as moisture ahead of a
short wave moves quickly east across northern half of ND.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 322 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Best chc of rain showers Friday moves into Minnesota and then
moves east of our area in the aftn. Temps safely above freezing so
just liquid and no travel concerns.

500mb ridge over The Rockies on Saturday will shift into the forecast area by
Sunday and Monday. Therefore the main question will be temps. On
Saturday the mildest 850mb temps remain closer to the ridge, but a
portion of the forecast area does rise above zero by 00z Sunday, but with
pretty weak surface winds. The GFS is much warmer than the
ec/Canadian at 850mb by 00z Monday, but all models are a little
warmer than Saturday. Once again, surface winds remain pretty weak.
These 850mb temperature differences continue into Monday as well,
with the GFS quicker in moving the thermal ridge east while the
ec/Canadian holds it over the forecast area for one more day. Boosted highs for
both Sunday and Monday warmer than what guidance came in with.

Kept some low chances for pcpn on Monday, although only the GFS
model shows any. Quite a bit of spread in model solutions from this
point into Wednesday. However, the GFS/ec have both come in dry for
Tuesday into early Wednesday. After coordinating with adjacent
offices, went ahead and removed the pcpn chances that had been in
the forecast. Overall uncertainty continues into later Wednesday,
but left the low chances of pcpn for that time period alone for now.
High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday drop back closer to normal.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 704 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Area of low clouds (ifr/low end mvfr) NE ND into the Red River and far
northwest Minnesota will slowly drift east today with hopefully some clearing
moving into the Red River midday and aftn. Timing of clearing will be
the main issue. Patchy fog as well.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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