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000 
FXUS62 KFFC 280754
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
354 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Initial, broad, band of generally light precipitation ahead of 
Alberto lifting north across the forecast area. Current forecast 
path continues along similar route from previous recent runs and 
overall impacts for our forecast area are not anticipated to change 
significantly from recent forecast trends. 

Heaviest precipitation totals continue to be focused along the 
western edge of the forecast area nearer to the track of the low, 
and across north Georgia where terrain will enhance totals a bit. 
Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch through the northwest corner of 
the state. 

Forecast area remains in the right front quadrant of the storm which 
will continue the threat for a few isolated tornadoes this afternoon 
through Tuesday. Will also see some strong wind gust potential in 
any stronger bands of precipitation, and with soils across the 
region very wet, a few trees are likely to fall. 

Will see increasing winds, especially up the western portions of the 
area, through the day today and into the overnight period. Wind 
speeds across the majority of the area are expected to be below Wind 
Advisory criteria for this event as the Tropical Storm quickly 
weakens after moving on shore. Southwestern edge of the forecast 
area is borderline, so we will need to keep a close watch on the 
wind trends and the actual path of the low center as it progresses.

20

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term period will begin with the continued influence of
the remnants of Alberto as it moves up the TN valley through TN and
KY Tuesday night allowing for abundant moisture and enough
instability for scattered to occasional showers and thunderstorms
with most thunderstorms on Wednesday with increased instability.

Plenty of moisture and instability in place for numerous showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday and although moisture is on the
decline for the rest of the week and weekend, instability remains
strong during the afternoon hours and short waves in a developing
NW flow aloft look to keep convective activity going across the
area. Expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms on Friday
and scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. This will
continue to be evaluated with later model runs.

BDL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flash flood watch is now extended to 12z Wednesday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches will be possible 
through Wednesday with locally higher amounts. The greatest 
amounts can be expected over the N and W portions of the CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION... 
06Z Update... 

IFR conditions spreading northward across the forecast are. all TAF 
sites expected to reach IFR between 06Z and 08Z, continuing through 
the overnight and into the morning. Should see some improvement to 
mainly MVFR after 14Z, continuing through the afternoon before 
dropping back to IFR between 03Z and 06Z. Periods of light to 
moderate showers will continue through much of the period. Main, 
stronger, convective bands associated with Subtropical Storm Alberto 
move into the area with SHRA/TSTM possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds 
will be east 6-10kts to start, increasing throughout the period. 
Wind speeds by late tomorrow morning will be 10-15G20-25kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update... 

Medium confidence in timing for ceilings and better precipitation 
chances. Medium to high on all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  70  79  69 /  80  80  90  90 
Atlanta         80  69  78  70 /  80  90  90  80 
Blairsville     76  66  75  66 /  80  80  90  90 
Cartersville    80  70  79  69 /  80  90  90  80 
Columbus        82  72  82  72 /  80  90  90  70 
Gainesville     77  68  77  69 /  80  80  90  90 
Macon           83  71  81  71 /  80  80  80  60 
Rome            79  70  79  70 /  80  90  90  90 
Peachtree City  80  70  80  70 /  80  90  90  80 
Vidalia         86  72  85  72 /  80  40  60  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday 
morning for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...
Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...
Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South 
Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...
Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...
Warren...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilkes.

&&

$$

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