Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 251110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
710 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017
have added light rain across far north Georgia this morning given an
impulse moving across the region. Based on satellite and radar
returns, this area of precipitation is a bit more potent than high
resolution models have indicated. Although, looking at obs, most
of this should be in the form of virga...not making it to the
ground as dry air at the surface is quickly filtering into the
area from the north. Anticipate this activity, as it tracks east,
to be short lived with gradual clearing taking shape through the
afternoon. Otherwise, forecast looks on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017/
Short term /today through Monday/...
a cold front, currently moving through north Georgia will continue to
slowly slip south of the County Warning Area through the morning hours. This front
will usher in much drier and cooler air. With the boundary becoming
situated just to our south later today, this is where we anticipate
vicinity showers and thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and early evening. The exact location of the boundary will
ultimately dictate the amount of precipitation coverage observed
across central Georgia. Current thinking is that east central Georgia will see
a bit more activity while the rest of the region will be dry. The
front will continue to exit to the south with drying finally
filtering into central Georgia. Expect a beautiful Monday for the entire
area as temperature will be below normal with dew points in the 50s
and 60s. This will also mean very pleasant overnight temperatures as
well! It is somewhat unusual to see apparent temperatures below the
Max temperature values this time of year...all thanks to the dry
cool high pressure building in from the north. In addition, winds
will be a bit elevated behind the front, especially during the
afternoon hours. Anticipate gusts to be around 20kts, higher across
the elevated terrain. One can not complain too much about this
forecast, especially for late June!
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
drying should continue into Monday night...however a weak impulse
moving around the upper trough into the Tennessee Valley could bring a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms to the northern counties
on Tuesday. Also a lingering boundary in the far Central Area
could trigger convection for the far eastern areas Tuesday
afternoon. Surface high pressure centered over the Appalachians
should push even more dry air into Georgia for Wednesday. Increasing
southerly flow from the Gulf and Atlantic will bring a rapid
return of tropical moisture back into the forecast area for the
remainder of the long term. Models hint at a short wave in the
northern Gulf that may enhance pops Friday and Saturday...however
for now chance or slight chance pops seem reasonable for the area.
a front is slowly moving south across the region this morning.
Observing some fog and low stratus across eastern Georgia at this hour,
but anticipate this will erode in the next hour or two. Also, some
radar returns from an impulse that will move across northern Georgia
this morning. Mostly virga is expected with no impacts to taf
sites. The front will become hung up across central/southern Georgia
with some scattered convection possible by the afternoon. However,
much of the activity should stay south of all the taf sites. Mcn
may see a higher chance of precipitation, so did place a vcsh in
there for now. Anticipate high clouds and cumulus development across
the southern tier. Winds will be generally from the northwest through the
period, gusting to around 20kts at times. Veering winds to the NE
will likely occur tomorrow morning.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
moderate to high on remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 87 64 85 63 / 10 0 0 5
Atlanta 84 64 84 64 / 10 0 0 5
Blairsville 79 55 78 56 / 20 0 0 10
Cartersville 83 60 83 61 / 20 0 0 10
Columbus 88 68 87 67 / 10 5 5 10
Gainesville 84 63 82 63 / 10 0 0 10
Macon 89 67 87 65 / 20 10 5 10
Rome 84 59 84 61 / 20 0 0 10
Peachtree City 85 62 85 62 / 10 0 5 10
Vidalia 88 72 85 69 / 50 40 10 10