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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
555 am EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Update for aviation...

Previous discussion... /issued 247 am EST Wed Nov 22 2017/

Short term /today through Thursday/...

Areas to widespread dense fog are over a large portion of central Georgia
this morning and should improve 8-10 am. A dense fog advisory is in
effect.

A few areas of light rain from atl over around ahn will not last long
this morning as an upper level short wave exits the area with
drier air moving in over north and portions of central Georgia today into tonight.

For Thanksgiving day...we need to watch a system in the eastern Gulf
of Mexico that will send moisture back into the forecast area with
rain chances over portions of central Georgia...east and S of mcn.
The GFS and European models are a little more gun-Ho with this than
the NAM. Rain chances at this time are only running 20-30 percent.

Forecast high temperatures are running close to normal today and
3-8 degrees below normal for Thanksgiving day.
Forecast low temperatures are running near to about 6 degrees
above normal tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

Bdl

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...

As the long term period begins...low pressure continues to move
out of the Gulf of Mexico and cross the Florida Peninsula. Models
in much better agreement than at any point previously this week.
GFS in this run is a little wetter than the European model (ecmwf) and will
continue to use a blend for pops. For these runs, this yields mid
range chance pops for the extreme southeast and continued sharp gradient
with no pops for the Atlanta Metro through Holiday weekend. Most
of the cold air will be locked up in northern stream energy over
the Ohio Valley leaving the local area with continued mild
conditions. Expect mid 60s for the Metro to as high as 70 for the
southeast zones.

Next frontal boundary to move through over the weekend but looks
to be a dry one based on limited mid level moisture. A brief stint
of cold air anticipated in its wake with highs knocked down to
the 50s and a light freeze possible for far northern tier Mon
morning. Otherwise...benign wx conditions expected for the
remainder of the long term period.

Deese

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
all conditions improving to VFR this morning if they have not
already. Surface winds north-northwest 6-12 kts with some gusts 15-20 kts
possible. Some returning clouds and VFR ceilings tonight.

//Atl confidence...
12z update...
high confidence for all elements today.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 66 40 56 36 / 0 0 5 0
Atlanta 62 41 58 40 / 0 0 5 0
Blairsville 57 31 55 33 / 5 0 5 0
Cartersville 59 36 58 35 / 0 0 5 0
Columbus 67 46 62 43 / 5 5 5 0
Gainesville 62 39 55 38 / 5 0 5 0
Macon 69 47 59 40 / 5 10 10 0
Rome 58 34 58 33 / 0 0 5 0
Peachtree City 63 40 60 36 / 0 0 5 0
Vidalia 70 49 59 46 / 5 20 30 30

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory until 9 am EST this morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

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