Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 282300
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
700 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
update for the 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
a weak frontal boundary continues to push south across the
forecast area this afternoon. A few showers have popped up along
and south of the front, but thunder hasn't developed yet. Do think
the coverage of storms will remain isolated/scattered and thunder
chances will remain low. A strong storm or two is possible and
severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Convection could
last into the evening hours, but should diminish with the loss of
Not completely confident that the frontal boundary will make it
south of the County warning forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. Have left isolated pops
in the forecast, mainly along and south of the front. Since high
pressure aloft will help suppress storms, coverage should remain
isolated. Severe weather is not anticipated, and the potential for
even strong storm development will remain low.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast, except for
pushing back the increasing pops on Thursday to more of a late
morning/afternoon time frame. Current forecast looks on track,
with similar discrepancies noted between extended models handling
of early next week's system. Previous forecast discussion is
/issued 347 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/...
The beginning of the long term period is characterized by more
unsettled weather. Rain chances will initially increase Thursday
especially across the eastern sections of County Warning Area in vicinity of weak
wedge front. The main storm system then quickly encroaches on the
area from the west Thursday night into Friday bringing good shower
and thunderstorm chances area wide. The possibility for some strong
to severe thunderstorm activity remains during this time frame with
adequate shear though instability is less impressive.
Nonetheless, it is something to watch as we head from Thursday night
This storm system exits east by Saturday with a dry and warm weekend
in store thanks to upper ridging. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday
will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny skies.
Early next week will transition back into an active pattern, though
models diverge on timing and evolution of the next storm system. The
European model (ecmwf) brings the next system into the area as early as Monday while
the GFS holds off until Tuesday. Regardless, expect the brief
inactive weather this weekend to come to an end early next week.
showers over central Georgia will dissipate rapidly with sunset. VFR
conditions expected through the forecast except for csg where MVFR
cigs will spread into that area late tonight. There will be
patchy fog with vsbys 3-5sm in favored locations. By mid morning
Wednesday all areas should be VFR. Winds will become light to calm
tonight. At atl winds will shift to the northeast by 08z but
remain less than 6kts. Winds will be vrb03kts from ahn to mcn
Wednesday and light southeast to south elsewhere. There could be
isolated showers Wednesday afternoon but chances are too low to
put in the taf at this time.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 54 82 58 78 / 10 5 5 50
Atlanta 57 81 60 79 / 10 10 10 40
Blairsville 48 76 55 69 / 10 10 10 40
Cartersville 52 81 58 79 / 10 10 10 30
Columbus 62 84 60 85 / 30 20 20 20
Gainesville 54 79 58 73 / 10 10 10 50
Macon 60 84 60 85 / 20 10 10 40
Rome 52 81 58 79 / 10 10 10 30
Peachtree City 56 82 57 81 / 20 10 10 30
Vidalia 63 85 63 83 / 30 20 20 30