Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 191458
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1058 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
Minor adjustments made to near term trends as forecast looks
largely on track. Pleasant Thursday on tap with mostly clear skies
and near normal temps as regime stays ridge dominated. Previous
Previous discussion... /issued 734 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
Short term /today through Friday/...
Strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the area through
the short term, resulting in a very benign forecast period. Expect
sunny skies and low moisture to continue through Friday. Upper level
high pressure axis will shift eastward through the period, and
gradual warming trend is expected with the influence of this
dominating feature. By Friday, high temperatures will climb into the
upper 70s to low 80s over north and central Georgia.
Still indicating a few isolated areas of patchy frost in the weather
grids through 9 am this morning, but with morning lows slightly
warmer than yesterday and frost potential a bit lower, do not feel
it warrants a Special Weather Statement at this time. Do not expect
any frost Friday morning with the warmer thermal profile.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
No significant changes to the long-term forecast trends once again
with this cycle. Medium-range models are still pointing to a fairly
vigorous system impacting the region early next week. There continues
to be a moderate amount of variance between the models concerning the
path/strength/timing of the system, as well as some instability from
run-to-run within each model concerning these features. Even so, it
is looking like the best chances for widespread, heavier, rain, and
some potential for at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms,
is around the Monday timeframe. After this system sweeps past
bringing some cooling in its wake, a secondary strong shot of cold
advection associated with another strong short wave may bring some
significantly below normal temperatures to the region for the latter
half of the week.
Otherwise, the extended forecast period starts out with dry and
warming conditions as upper-level ridging traverses the region. We
will see some increase in clouds by Saturday as the upper-level
pattern shifts to strong southwesterly flow. Better return flow off
of the Gulf of Mexico doesn't bring sufficient moisture back into the
forecast area for pops until Sunday.
VFR conditions through the period. Some cirrus to impact north
Georgia into the afternoon hours. Light winds will prevail
through the period, initially starting NE-east-northeast and then shifting to
north-northwest-north-northeast by the afternoon. Calm or near calm winds expected
//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium confidence on wind direction after 18z.
High confidence on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 47 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 75 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 73 43 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 74 44 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 78 52 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 73 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 78 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 74 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 75 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 79 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0