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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
611 am EST sun Feb 19 2017




Update...
updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 440 am EST sun Feb 19 2017/

Short term /today through Monday/...
short wave exiting the County Warning Area and rapid improvement will occur this
morning with an 500 mb ridge building over the County Warning Area through the short
term. This will keep the County Warning Area dry and stable through Monday.
Increasing 500 mb heights will also yield increasing thicknesses which
will bring record or near record high temperatures both today and
Monday.

17

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over
the County Warning Area through Tuesday afternoon. Another developing frontal
system moves out of the southern and Central Plains and into the
southeastern U.S. Tuesday morning. This front brings increased
chances of showers to the County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
The forecast models differ a bit on the strength and intensity of
this next system but they both show it weakening as it pushes
into Georgia. There is very little instability with it so staying with
showers and no mention of thunder. This weakening system keeps
increased moisture over the area through the end of the work week
so will keep slight chance to chance pops across the area through
then. Another short wave and associated cold front will move out
of the Midwest and into the eastern US Friday. This system is
expected to have a little more instability with it so keeping in
the mention of isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday night.
This second front appears to move east of the County Warning Area Sat and clear
things out for Sat afternoon and sun.

01

Climate...

Records for 02-19

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 79 1939 29 2015 54 2014 14 1958
1986
1961
katl 78 1891 28 2015 59 2014 13 1958
kcsg 80 2011 35 2015 58 1949 17 1958
kmcn 82 1956 34 2015 59 1986 17 1958
1981

Records for 02-20

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 78 1986 37 2015 57 1991 14 2015
katl 78 1986 32 1901 57 2014 16 2015
1994 1934
kcsg 80 1986 36 2015 63 1991 21 2015
1917
kmcn 80 1991 37 2015 61 1961 18 2015
1986




&&

Aviation...
12z update...
a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs will becoming VFR by 16z at most
locations. Afterwards VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of
the forecast. There will be patchy fog but this will dissipate by
14-15z this morning. Winds will be light westerly becoming
northwest 5 to 10 kts today...diminishing to near calm tonight.
Winds will switch to the southeast after sunrise Monday morning.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium on ceilings.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 46 75 48 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 70 49 74 52 / 5 0 0 0
Blairsville 66 39 71 45 / 5 0 0 0
Cartersville 70 44 74 50 / 5 0 0 0
Columbus 73 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 69 47 72 50 / 5 0 0 0
Macon 76 47 77 50 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 70 44 73 50 / 5 0 0 0
Peachtree City 72 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 76 51 77 53 / 5 0 0 0

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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