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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
657 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017



..updated for the 00z aviation discussion...



Aviation...
00z update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain
generally west to west northwest with some gusts to 15kts possible
on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. High level
clouds expected to move into the area and remain in place through
the forecast. Introduced sct150 this forecast but could easily be
broken or even overcast given the moisture plume that extends back into
the Pacific and model relative humidity forecasts for those levels.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
high all elements

30

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 231 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...

Weak surface front will push through the state through the short
term, with minimal impact to the area. As the front pushes into
southern Georgia overnight, increased upper level moisture will
allow high level clouds to build northward into the state, but still
do not expect any precipitation. Cloudy conditions will affect
middle Georgia overnight and into the weekend. Cloudy skies will be
less prominent over north Georgia, with increased mid-day cloud
cover Friday diminishing into the late afternoon/early evening
hours and ahead of the weekend.

Friday lows will be near 30 north to near 40 south, with
temperatures running 5-10 degrees cooler on Saturday morning. Chilly
high temperatures return tomorrow, with afternoon temps generally in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

31

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...

While not much change was needed to the first portion of the fcst
period (into monday), most adjustments were to raise pops for a
more prolonged period of SW Gulf moisture advection and less
progressive upper trough to the west through Tuesday. Have largely
based this on how the latest Euro has come more in line with the
GFS. Progged instability looks slightly higher for Monday and
Tuesday so have included slight chance thunder wording accordingly
(mainly for parts of south and west). Will have to still watch for
stronger convection potential given how highly sheared the
environment looks. Given the setup, temps are now decently warmer
and quantitative precipitation forecast higher Mon/Tue. Guidance diverges then Wed/Thu, however
agreement exists at least on the moisture axis pushing south of
the area so drier conditions still look supported. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 35 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 36 48 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 28 41 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 31 45 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 39 54 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 35 47 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 38 56 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 30 45 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 35 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 42 60 36 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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