Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1045 am EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Will be issuing a quick update to the forecast products. No
fundamental changes made to the forecast grids, made a few tweaks to
the hourly temperatures, dew points and winds to fit current trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 am EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
A dry cold front will cross the area early this morning giving way
to a slightly cooler airmass. Highs temps around 70 across the
higher elevations to the low 80s south of Columbus. Easterly winds
may become gusty as the front pushes further south with high
pressure building in from the NE. The gradient should relax by later
in the afternoon. High clouds associated with the front will taper
by the evening hours with clear and calm conditions expected
overnight. This will allow low temps to drop into the mid/upper 40s
across much of northern GA, around 50 across central Georgia.
A pleasant Wednesday can be expected with a weak wedge pattern
keeping temperatures similar to Tuesday, a bit above normal. Clouds
will begin to filter into the region from the west later Wednesday
ahead of the next front.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
The long term period begins with a strong shortwave extending from
the Ohio Valley through the Tennessee and mid Mississippi River
valleys. Surface reflection in the form of a weak low will be well
north of the area moving from Indiana through Ohio. As we progress
through 09z Thu...a pre frontal activity will move into northwest Georgia and
a little deeper moisture and stronger lift indicate that pops may
need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if these model trends
continue. For now though...low to mid range scattered pops will
suffice for the extreme northern portions. Forcing abates quickly
as is often the case with these type of systems and 20 to 30
percent coverage is likely the extent of the activity from the
southern Atlanta Metro and points south.
There continues to be a healthy amount of cape advertised by the
models especially of the most unstable variety. Not sure how much
surface based we will actually get but seeing enough to warrant
inclusion of isolated thunder in the grids...primarily along and
Unfortunately...no relief in sight for the worsening drought
conditions and have a pop free forecast in the Post frontal
environment. Temps will also remain above normal through the
period with several 80 degree days in store for the area.
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. A dry cold front
will continue to cross the area this morning giving way to
easterly winds, which has been observed at atl Metro. As the
front crosses, winds may gust briefly, just behind the front, around
15kts. Winds will subside later this afternoon/evening as high
pressure builds in. Expect scattered high clouds with the fropa, but
otherwise mainly clear. Winds will decouple overnight perhaps
reducing vsbys across the taf sites further south (mcn/csg). Will
monitor this potential.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
confidence high on all elements apart from the potential of lower
vsbys early Wednesday morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 46 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
Atlanta 76 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 10
Blairsville 72 42 70 51 / 0 0 0 20
Cartersville 76 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 82 55 80 60 / 0 0 5 10
Gainesville 72 49 71 56 / 0 0 0 10
Macon 79 49 80 56 / 0 0 0 10
Rome 78 48 77 56 / 0 0 0 20
Peachtree City 77 48 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
Vidalia 78 53 79 59 / 0 0 5 10