Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 290730
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
330 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
Short term /today through Friday/...
as the surface high continues to move out to sea, a series of mid-
level impulses will be moving across the region through the short
term. This will yield waves of showers and thunderstorms moving from
southwest to northeast on Thursday and eventually west to east by
Friday. To time these waves of moisture at this point would be a
challenge, but there is a general consensus that we will see more
activity Thursday afternoon and then again early Friday morning into
the afternoon which correspond well with the best mid-level vort.
Max and isentropic upglide. Based on some early estimates of
precipitation amount through this period, the highest values are
seen north of I-20, especially across the higher terrain.
Precipitation in this area is around 1.5 to 2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. South of I-20 is under an inch or so.
With marginal instability and very low bulk shear, we do not
anticipate widespread severe weather across the region. However,
there is the potential for some localized flooding to occur. With
hours of pwats values over 2", mean relative humidity above 90% and mean warm cloud
depth around 13kft, am a bit concerned about the potential for
flooding. Not to mention training shower/thunderstorms possible
based on mbe velocities, especially Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially the
afternoon highs given cloud and precipitation coverage. Winds will
be southeast to start and eventually veer to the SW by Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
long term begins with an short wave pulling into the Carolinas and
a weak cold front moving southward into the Tennessee Valley. By
the weekend a fast westerly flow sets up over the the County Warning Area. This
will slow down the front as it enters the County Warning Area and eventually
stalling over the County Warning Area. There will also be weak short waves moving
along the front. All this together will keep an active pattern
over the County Warning Area with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
be near climo through the long term.
VFR conditions to start the taf period, but big changes to come
as mid-level impulses cross the region. An increase in clouds and
lowering decks can be expected through the morning hours.
Anticipate MVFR cigs through the day. Showers will start to move
north into the area around sunrise with the best chance of
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR during the evening/overnight hours. Some residual
showers after sunset. East/southeast winds, around 8-10 kts during
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium confidence on lower ceiling and precip onset.
High confidence on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 84 69 82 70 / 50 50 70 60
Atlanta 82 70 82 71 / 60 60 70 50
Blairsville 78 65 76 66 / 40 60 80 50
Cartersville 82 70 81 71 / 60 60 70 40
Columbus 83 72 87 73 / 90 50 60 30
Gainesville 81 68 79 70 / 50 60 80 60
Macon 84 71 86 72 / 70 60 60 40
Rome 82 70 81 71 / 60 60 70 40
Peachtree City 82 70 83 71 / 70 60 70 40
Vidalia 86 73 88 74 / 60 50 60 30