Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 192343 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
643 PM EST sun Nov 19 2017




Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM EST sun Nov 19 2017/

Previous discussion... /issued 214 PM EST sun Nov 19 2017/

Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
ridge of high pressure dominating period as it slides southeast into
the region. Remnants of cold advection stratocu in the far north
should continue to clear out late this afternoon with strong
subsident flow. With gradient winds set to lax overnight under clear
skies, the radiational cooling component will take over from the
advection process and allow for widespread locations reaching the
freezing mark. The previous freeze warning looks on track with the
fcst so no changes have been made. This may very well be the last
warning of the season for the County Warning Area based on agricultural interest
since Nov 20 is usually the end of the watch/warning/advisory
issuances.

Winds quickly shift out of the southeast for Monday as the center of the
aforementioned high shifts quickly off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Should still be a below normal temp day, though will feel much more
pleasant compared to today with less winds and temps moderating back
close to the upper 50s/low 60s. With this shift in the low level
fetch and a quick transition from northwest flow aloft to amplifying SW
flow east of a developing northern Gulf trough, we should see some
moisture return off the Atlantic coast Monday night, which should
allow for a low level cloud deck pushing in across the southern
majority of the area after midnight.

Baker

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
no major changes needed for the extended portion of the forecast.
Have only made some minor tweaks to the pops for Thanksgiving as the
models have become into slightly better agreement.

Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have come in a bit drier for Thanksgiving.
Models do have some slight timing and synoptic pattern differences,
but both keep a surface low pressure well to the south of the County warning forecast area.
Have tweaked pops downward across the southern cwfa, but in reality
most areas went from around 30 percent to 20 percent.

Nlistemaa

&&

Aviation...
00z update...
mostly clear skies with no precipitation or restrictions to
vsbys. Winds starting out of the northwest and turning to the NE and
eventually southeast by the end of the taf period. Wind speeds will stay
10kt or less.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 31 59 38 57 / 0 0 5 10
Atlanta 32 59 42 58 / 0 0 5 10
Blairsville 24 58 34 55 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 28 58 40 57 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 34 61 45 64 / 0 0 5 20
Gainesville 32 57 39 54 / 0 0 5 10
Macon 31 61 43 64 / 0 0 5 30
Rome 27 58 38 58 / 0 0 0 5
Peachtree City 29 60 39 61 / 0 0 5 20
Vidalia 37 63 46 67 / 0 0 5 30

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 am EST Monday for
the following zones: Baldwin...banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...Meriwether...
Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Newton...north Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam...
Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...
Taylor...towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...
Walton...Warren...Washington...white...Whitfield...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations