Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 210555 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
150 am EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Previous discussion... /issued 341 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...

A short wave currently moving across north Alabama is producing isolated
to scattered showers across the western part of the County Warning Area. Some of
these could get into the atl area and points southward late this
afternoon, however by 00z most of the showers will be dissipated. An
500 mb upper low off the Georgia/Carolina coast will move inland tonight and
open into a weak wave. This will bring a isolated-scattered
showers/tstorms across central Georgia this afternoon and into the
evening hours, however these will dissipate toward midnight.
Afterwards the rest of the night should be dry. The atmosphere dries
out a little more Friday allowing temperatures to rise a degree or
two more than today. This will push heat index values into the 100
to 104 range with spotty 105 across central Georgia. Not enough to
warrant a heat advisory at this time. Even with the atmosphere a
little drier Friday, daytime heating combined with the open 500 mb wave
over southern Alabama/southern Georgia will aid in tstorm development Friday
afternoon. Differential heating over the mountains will also aid in
producing isolated to scattered tstorms Friday afternoon.

17

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...

Minor adjustments made mainly to raise some pops going into the
late weekend/Monday period with better consensus on more
widespread shower/storm potential. Otherwise forecast on track and
little change made given a general refresh of model blend.
Previous discussion follows...

Baker

Previous discussion... /issued 735 am EDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the extended starts off with weakening high pressure over the
region that will continue through the weekend. Moisture slowly
increases through the extended forecast allowing increased pop
chances through day 7. There is also a developing upper level low
over the northeast Gulf Sat that may affect pops for the weekend
and a frontal system moving into the area by Tue/Wed.

01

Aviation...
06z update...
VFR conditions through the forecast. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
again this afternoon and evening. Have included only vcsh in tafs
so far since pops are low. Winds will be northwest 5 to 8kt then
becoming southwest by afternoon.



//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements...except medium on winds.

41

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 72 96 74 93 / 10 20 20 30
Atlanta 75 94 75 91 / 10 20 20 30
Blairsville 67 90 67 87 / 10 30 10 30
Cartersville 70 94 73 92 / 10 20 20 30
Columbus 77 96 77 92 / 10 30 20 30
Gainesville 73 93 74 91 / 10 20 10 30
Macon 73 96 74 93 / 10 20 20 20
Rome 72 94 73 92 / 10 20 20 30
Peachtree City 72 93 73 91 / 10 20 20 30
Vidalia 74 94 74 94 / 20 20 20 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations