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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
341 am EST Mon Jan 16 2017




Short term /today through Tuesday/...
overnight water vapor imagery reveals a strong negatively
tilted shortwave trough over the Texas Panhandle/west OK with weak short
wave ridging downstream of this feature across the southeast. Latest sfc
analysis shows stubborn stationary boundary flirting with the north
GA border and a weak wedge taking shape down The Spine of the
Appalachians as a 1030mb high centers across mid Atlantic coast.

Today...axis of 500 mb shortwave ridge will move east allowing deeper SW
flow to influence the area while the weak wedge builds into the NE
portion of the County Warning Area at the sfc. This will translate to an increase in
cloud cover today with a few isolated showers possible just about
anywhere...but opted to focus slight chance pops more along The
Wedge front. Despite more cloud cover...temps are expected to top
off much above normal again with highs in the 70s most locations.
Only high temp record in jeopardy will be atl. Areas of fog are
still possible through about mid morning today...but dense cirrus
shield is helping to keep widespread conditions at Bay.

Tonight...potent shortwave will push into the g lakes...with SW flow
still in pace across the southeast and a ridge building into the Gulf and
Florida. Mild lows expected again with abundant cloud cover in place and
a continued modified airmass. Our next frontal system will finally
be approaching the area from the west..but mid-Atlantic sfc high
responsible for Monday wedge will push offshore but will maintain
enough ridging influence to keep shower activity generally at Bay-
minus an isolated shower or two.

Tuesday...frontal boundary will continue to creep east before
eventually setting up shop near our northwest border. Rain and thunder
chances increase just ahead and very near this boundary...mainly
across far northwest GA. Lack of appreciable MUCAPE and fairly weak shear
will lead to general thunder concerns below severe limits. High
temps continue well above normal with highs upper 60s north to upper
70s central. A more focused potential for rainfall falls into the
extended period.

Kovacik



Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
models are coming into a little better agreement for the long term
portion of the forecast. Frontal boundary will begin to impact
northern portions of the County warning forecast area Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
The main forcing with this system GOES well to the north, but
there should be some small chances of thunder right along the
boundary early mainly Tuesday night. This front will stall across
portions of central Georgia Wednesday into late Thursday. Not much
forcing aloft to interact with this boundary, so pops will remain
on the low side. However, if any perturbations in the zonal flow
come across - pops could be locally higher near the boundary.

The old front should begin to push northward as a warm front early
Friday as the next system move out of the lower Mississippi River
valley. The surface low pressure system will move well to the north,
with a trailing front Thursday night into Friday. In the mid levels,
the main forcing also shunts a bit to the north, but still some
decent energy this far south. The longwave through actually comes
through negatively tilted. There should be enough instability
around for thunder...and a few of the storms could become strong.
Will have to watch for the potential for severe. This front looks
to make it to near the Florida Panhandle by early Saturday.

The next low pressure system/front looks to impact the area late
Sunday into Monday.

Nlistemaa



&&

Climate...



Records for 01-16

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 76 1952 30 1994 56 1974 9 1927
1928 1972 1952 1912
katl 73 1882 28 1972 64 1882 5 1972
1912
1893
kcsg 79 1950 35 1972 64 1947 14 1972
1912
kmcn 81 1952 35 1994 64 2013 12 1927
1950









&&

Aviation... 06z update... all sites are currently VFR...but do
expect some fog and lower level clouds to create some scattered
MVFR conditions and perhaps some areas of IFR visibilities through
about mid morning. Low and mid level clouds are expected through
the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Winds will be calm at most
sites through sunrise and then remain on the southeast side through the
remainder of this cycle between 5-8kts.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.

Kovacik

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 67 50 71 56 / 20 10 20 30
Atlanta 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 20 30
Blairsville 64 51 63 52 / 20 20 50 60
Cartersville 70 54 70 56 / 10 10 30 60
Columbus 74 54 75 58 / 10 10 10 20
Gainesville 65 54 69 57 / 20 10 20 50
Macon 74 52 74 57 / 10 10 10 20
Rome 71 54 70 55 / 10 10 50 60
Peachtree City 71 49 71 56 / 10 10 20 30
Vidalia 75 54 76 58 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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